Today’s topic is Climatology. How many named (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) will there be? My (hopefully intelligent) GUESS is 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 4 major (Category 3 or greater) Hurricanes and 2 that will make landfall in Florida. However, your intelligent (don’t pick a number less than 1 or with 3 digits) is as good as mine, or anyone else. The truth is, with or without a PhD, and despite howls of protests and gesticulations, there is no present science that can accurately predict these numbers. Some gurus even use numbers like 7.8 hurricanes, a number that might make statistical sense, but makes no physical sense – that is, real world sense ( it is either 7 or 8 – there is no such thing as a fractional event). Who would have predicted the 2005 hurricane season with 28 named storms, 15 hurricanes and 7 major hurricanes with the most rapidly intensifying hurricane on record, Wilma. I heard no one, with or without a PhD get even close, and they were even wrong at the end of November when the final guesses came in. So far this year we have had 6 named storms, 2 major hurricane and 1 regular one. From NOAA statistics, climatologically, we would not have 5 names storms before September 5, and 2 hurricanes before August 30, and a major hurricane a major hurricane before September 3. The climatologically progress is illustrated below
The official hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin (the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico) is from 1 June to 30 November. As seen in the graph above, the peak of the season is from mid-August to late October. However, deadly hurricanes can occur anytime in the hurricane season. We are almost 2 weeks ahead of the climatological average and nothing
special for an active season.
So, you can see it is the time year when the likelihood of tropical storms and hurricanes is on the rise.