[hurricane-forecast] HURRICANE ARTHUR 7/4/2014 7am

Friends, This will be the last scheduled report on Arthur since it no longer threatens US land directly. I will be happy to respond to any specific inquiry. FORECAST: HURRICANE ARTHUR has left North Carolina moving NE at 25 mph and with MSW winds of 95 mph. Arthur made landfall on the Outer Islands during low tide which reduced the damage of flooding. Next landfall will be in the Maritime Providences, as a week hurricane or strong tropical storm. There STILL will be squalls, rough seas, strong winds, rain and rip currents all up the east coast, and Boston will have a rough 6 six hours as it makes a close approach to the cape. STAY OUT OF THE WATER unless you want to feed the fish. DISCUSSION: Everything is unfolding as foretold. Have a wonderful 4th with rememberance. And as John Adams said: celebrate with "illuminations", which we also celebrate in our National Anthem. NEXT FORECAST: Next storm Peter Ray DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states at no cost to those who receive it. NEW BLOG AND DONATIONS: I have set up a website and blog which may be reached at URL http://www.hurricanehunt.com In this website you can find the forecast, as well as a blog of expanded interests of mine dealing with weather and climate and hurricanes, and an opportunity for you to comment as well. There is also an opportunity for you to contribute to defraying the increasing costs of maintaining this service, if and only if you want to. This must always be a not for profit public service and free as long as I have anything to do with it. But I have had offers of help in the past and it is increasingly difficult for me to underwrite all the cost, even with the generous and gracious support form Hayes Computer Systems. SUBSCRIPTIONS: Please do NOT send subscription messages to hurricane-forecasts@lists.hcs.net. To subscribe or unsubscribe to the hurricane forecast list send an email to hurricane-forecast-request@lists.hcs.net with "subscribe" or "unsubscribe" as the subject. You can manage your subscription at: http://lists.hcs.net/mailman/listinfo/hurricane-forecast_lists.hcs.net If someone wishes to contact me, they can send an email to hurricanehunter007@gmail.com. Peter S. Ray _______________________________________________ hurricane-forecast mailing list hurricane-forecast@lists.hcs.net http://lists.hcs.net/mailman/listinfo/hurricane-forecast_lists.hcs.net

[hurricane-forecast] Tropical Storm Arthur 7/3/2014 4 am

FORECAST: Tropical Storm Arthur will become a hurricane today. Right now it is 100 miles off the coast of Georgia moving north at about 9 miles per hour and picking up speed. Winds are 72 mph and strengthening. The coast of North Carolina will experience a Category 1 hurricane. Not as bad as you go north, until Boston which will experience at least gusts of hurricane force on Saturday. Coastal areas must just be aware of heavy coastal rains and rough seas all the way through Maine, even as the storm weakens as it goes. Florida is no longer affected. DISCUSSION: Everything and all the logic remains the same as forecast. Arthur will have 3 days max as a hurricane as it moves toward Greenland for Whiter Pastures (assuming the ice has not all melted by now). NEXT FORECAST: Tomorrow morning on July 4th Have a GREAT 4th of July and Independence Day. Peter Ray DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states at no cost to those who receive it. NEW BLOG AND DONATIONS: I have set up a website and blog which may be reached at URL http://www.hurricanehunt.com In this website you can find the forecast, as well as a blog of expanded interests of mine dealing with weather and climate and hurricanes, and an opportunity for you to comment as well. There is also an opportunity for you to contribute to defraying the increasing costs of maintaining this service, if and only if you want to. This must always be a not for profit public service and free as long as I have anything to do with it. But I have had offers of help in the past and it is increasingly difficult for me to underwrite all the cost, even with the generous and gracious support form Hayes Computer Systems. SUBSCRIPTIONS: Please do NOT send subscription messages to hurricane-forecasts@lists.hcs.net. To subscribe or unsubscribe to the hurricane forecast list send an email to hurricane-forecast-request@lists.hcs.net with "subscribe" or "unsubscribe" as the subject. You can manage your subscription at: http://lists.hcs.net/mailman/listinfo/hurricane-forecast_lists.hcs.net If someone wishes to contact me, they can send an email to hurricanehunter007@gmail.com. Peter S. Ray _______________________________________________ hurricane-forecast mailing list hurricane-forecast@lists.hcs.net http://lists.hcs.net/mailman/listinfo/hurricane-forecast_lists.hcs.net

[hurricane-forecast] Tropical Storm Arthur 7/2/3014 3am

Friends, Florida will not get much drama from TS Arthur FORECAST: Basically the same as yesterday. Some structural changes but nothing of great consequence. Tropical Storm Arthur will become a hurricane tomorrow for a couple of days as it cruises up East Coast, kissing the Outer Banks. on Friday at its prime. Tallahassee should have good picnic and fireworks weather with the very unlikely possibility of a random shower mainly during the day. Plan for a good day. DISCUSSION: A building ridge to the east and digging trough to the west will push Arthur to the North and NE The most significant threat is coastal rain, rip currents and rough seas. Tallahassee will not be affected. NEXT FORECAST: Thursday morning 7/3/14 Peter Ray DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states at no cost to those who receive it. NEW BLOG AND DONATIONS: I have set up a website and blog which may be reached at URL http://www.hurricanehunt.com In this website you can find the forecast, as well as a blog of expanded interests of mine dealing with weather and climate and hurricanes, and an opportunity for you to comment as well. There is also an opportunity for you to contribute to defraying the increasing costs of maintaining this service, if and only if you want to. This must always be a not for profit public service and free as long as I have anything to do with it. But I have had offers of help in the past and it is increasingly difficult for me to underwrite all the cost, even with the generous and gracious support form Hayes Computer Systems. SUBSCRIPTIONS: Please do NOT send subscription messages to hurricane-forecasts@lists.hcs.net. To subscribe or unsubscribe to the hurricane forecast list send an email to hurricane-forecast-request@lists.hcs.net with "subscribe" or "unsubscribe" as the subject. You can manage your subscription at: http://lists.hcs.net/mailman/listinfo/hurricane-forecast_lists.hcs.net If someone wishes to contact me, they can send an email to hurricanehunter007@gmail.com. Peter S. Ray _______________________________________________ hurricane-forecast mailing list hurricane-forecast@lists.hcs.net http://lists.hcs.net/mailman/listinfo/hurricane-forecast_lists.hcs.net

[hurricane-forecast] Soon to be Tropical Storm Arthur 7/2/2014 2:45 am

Friends, Welcome to the 2014 Hurricane Season. FORECAST: Before tomorrow evening, an area of low pressure, a Tropical Depression, that is presently off the east coast if central Florida will become Tropical Storm Arthur, the first named storm of the 2014 Hurricane Season. Current winds are about 35 mph. By Thursday, Arthur will be moving up the east coast of the US, strengthening as it goes. Tropical Storm Arthur may briefly make landfall on NC outer banks on Friday before heading out to sea. It will be by then a very strong Tropical Storm. It will bring much heavy rain along the eastern seaboard, and high surf and rip currents from North Florida past North Carolina. Dangerous water to be in (read, stay out) and boating interest should also beware of angry seas. Tallahassee will barely be affected. DISCUSSION: This system has been languishing off the south Floria coast for days. However tomorrow Arthur will come under the influence of an approaching trough and move to the northeast. NEXT FORECAST: Tomorrow, Wednesday, July 2 Peter Ray DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states at no cost to those who receive it. NEW BLOG AND DONATIONS: I have set up a website and blog which may be reached at URL http://www.hurricanehunt.com In this website you can find the forecast, as well as a blog of expanded interests of mine dealing with weather and climate and hurricanes, and an opportunity for you to comment as well. There is also an opportunity for you to contribute to defraying the increasing costs of maintaining this service, if and only if you want to. This must always be a not for profit public service and free as long as I have anything to do with it. But I have had offers of help in the past and it is increasingly difficult for me to underwrite all the cost, even with the generous and gracious support form Hayes Computer Systems. SUBSCRIPTIONS: Please do NOT send subscription messages to hurricane-forecasts@lists.hcs.net. To subscribe or unsubscribe to the hurricane forecast list send an email to hurricane-forecast-request@lists.hcs.net with "subscribe" or "unsubscribe" as the subject. You can manage your subscription at: http://lists.hcs.net/mailman/listinfo/hurricane-forecast_lists.hcs.net If someone wishes to contact me, they can send an email to hurricanehunter007@gmail.com. Peter S. Ray _______________________________________________ hurricane-forecast mailing list hurricane-forecast@lists.hcs.net http://lists.hcs.net/mailman/listinfo/hurricane-forecast_lists.hcs.net

[hurricane-forecast] 2014 Hurricane Season

Friends, There is a fascination with a forecast of what to expect for the next hurricane season. And we turn to meteorologists to make these predictions. However predictions are really only educated guesses. In truth, there should be little emphasis on “educated”, and a lot of emphasis on “guesses”. Most notable are the seasonal predictions of Drs. William Gray and Phillip Klotzbach of Colorado State University. In 2013 Klotzbach and Gray predicted 18 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes. Hedging their bets, NOAA called for 13-20 named storms, 7-11 were expected to become hurricanes with 3-6 major hurricanes There were actually14 named storms and only 2 hurricanes and no major storms.. Klotzbach called it the biggest forecast bust in 30 years. Hardly. In 2005 there were 28 named storms, 15 hurricanes, and 7 major hurricanes. Gray predicted 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. NOAA’s NHC prediction for 2005 was 12-15 tropical storms, 7-9 hurricanes with 3-5 major hurricanes. The preseason hurricane forecasts have been demonstrated annually to show virtually no mathematical skill and value, except to satisfy a public curiosity. And NOAA has actually funded these forecasts. The long-term average is 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. We are under the influence of an El Nino which suggests fewer that “normal” might be expected. However, since 1995 we have been in a more active period. For the 2014 hurricane season, some predictions follow. Drs. William Gray and Phillip Klotzbach of Colorado State University predict 9 names storms, 3 hurricanes and 1 major hurricane. Now this group has in the past adjusted their predictions as the season progresses so by Nov. 30, they are spot on. The Weather Channel predicts 11 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. The Hurricane Center decided to hedge it bets and give a range estimate with so many escape clauses as to make them as useful and they are comprehensible. They predict a 70% probability that there will be 8-13 named storms, 3-6 hurricanes and 1-2 major hurricanes. How can they possibly be very wrong with these guesses? I would even be please is NOAA would say, for example, we are 5% certain that there will be 12 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 1 major hurricane. I can do better. I predict with 100% certainty that there will be 1-30 named storms and 4 - 18 hurricanes and 0-5 major hurricanes. Now, I know I have to be more specific than NOAA and really go out on a limb. So here are my guesses: There is a El Nino and we are near the end, I believe, of a 20 year active period, so I will go with 12 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. To be more relevant. It isn’t how many or even how strong, but where it hits. One storm early in the hurricane season, August 2, 1002 changed everything. IT ISN’T THE NUMBER – IT IS THE LANDFALL LOCATION. LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION. Fortunately for Tallahassee, we are well protected. In that respect will go further than others and predict 2 land-falling named storms, one of which (at least) is a hurricane. If a hurricane makes landfall in Florida, it will be in the Keys or in the Panhandle. Of course I hope this forecast is an over estimate, and it will may be since I believe the steering currents this year will be much as they were last year during which no hurricanes made it to landfall – but part of the credit for that were the currents and southerly frontal systems, and part of it was just luck. Again, I believe from all that I can tell, that the steering currents will remain much the same. PS I have always wanted to have a prediction contest, maybe someday I will if I can determine it is legal. Peter Ray DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states at no cost to those who receive it. NEW BLOG AND DONATIONS: I have set up a website and blog which may be reached at URL http://www.hurricanehunt.com In this website you can find the forecast, as well as a blog of expanded interests of mine dealing with weather and climate and hurricanes, and an opportunity for you to comment as well. There is also an opportunity for you to contribute to defraying the increasing costs of maintaining this service, if and only if you want to. This must always be a not for profit public service and free as long as I have anything to do with it. But I have had offers of help in the past and it is increasingly difficult for me to underwrite all the cost, even with the generous and gracious support form Hayes Computer Systems. SUBSCRIPTIONS: Please do NOT send subscription messages to hurricane-forecasts@lists.hcs.net. To subscribe or unsubscribe to the hurricane forecast list send an email to hurricane-forecast-request@lists.hcs.net with "subscribe" or "unsubscribe" as the subject. You can manage your subscription at: http://lists.hcs.net/mailman/listinfo/hurricane-forecast_lists.hcs.net If someone wishes to contact me, they can send an email to hurricanehunter007@gmail.com. Peter S. Ray _______________________________________________ hurricane-forecast mailing list hurricane-forecast@lists.hcs.net http://lists.hcs.net/mailman/listinfo/hurricane-forecast_lists.hcs.net