Alberto 5/27/18

FRIENDS, Not much has changed.  You can pretty much move Memorial Day activities indoors or at least have that as an option.  The most important word is RAIN, and the most important two words are NO HURRICANE.

TS Alberto will make for a wet Florida, especially the panhandle. Not all of the panhandle will even experience sustained Tropical Storm Force winds.  Maybe this has been over hyped.

 

FORECAST: Tropical Storm ALBERTO  is about 75 miles south of Apalachicola headed NNE at about 13 mph.  Maximum sustained winds are about 50 mph.  Alberto will NOT become a hurricane. In fact, most of Florida and most of the the Florida Panhandle will not even experience sustained Tropical Storm force winds.   Alberto is struggling to gain  strength, while the environment resists and time is running out.  Most likely landfall point  will be near  Panama City. But all the Panhandle of Florida will be impacted essentially the same.  Rain for hours and some surge.  We have and will face worse!!  Surge at Ceder Key will be only a couple of few feet, but potentially more  at selected spots along the Gulf coast.  Landfall is f early  Monday morning about daylight, but the weather over most of the panhandle will be rainy with gusts all day.   No chance of it becoming even a weak hurricane.  Remember - stay. out of the water along the Gulf Coast.  Rip currents along the panhandle and big bend area.  The amplitude of surge varies a lot along the coast depending on coastal characteristics.  Gusts, rip tides, and Rain. (And if you are in Tallahassee, a possibility of  culling a few  trees and limbs)

 

DISCUSSION:  The difficulty is that Tropical Storm Alberto  is disorganized with competing forces.  Warmer waters and diffluence aloft favors intensification,  but other environmental conditions (dry air) will mitigate intensification. The net result is some modest intensification but all withing the range of a Tropical Storm and not even close to a hurricane.  Rain, Rain, Gusts, variable Surge, Rip Tides. Rainfall totals will be several inch throughout Florida and with 2-4 inches total in the panhandle, and maybe a bit more in the western panhandle.  Enjoy your indoor picnic, and remember what Memorial Day is about:   not  the food, but for those of us alive to collectively remember the sacrifice of those who could not be with us. 

 

Next Forecast: Monday morning

Peter S. Ray



DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any
FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased
my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been
touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have
received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the
Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the
citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set
up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of
these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I
acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort
and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for
the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states
at no cost to those who receive it.

NEW BLOG AND DONATIONS:

I have set up a website and blog which may be reached at URL  http://www.hurricanehunt.com   In this website
you can find the forecast, as well as a blog of expanded interests of mine dealing with weather and climate and hurricanes, and an opportunity for you to comment as well.  There is also an opportunity for you to contribute to defraying the increasing costs of maintaining this service, if and only if you want to.  This must always be a not for profit public service and free as long as I have anything to do with it. But I have had offers of help in the past and it is increasingly difficult for me to underwrite all the cost, even with the generous and gracious support form Hayes Computer Systems.


SUBSCRIPTIONS:

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If someone wishes to contact me, they can send an email to hurricanehunter007@gmail.com.

Peter S. Ray

Alberto. 5/27/18. 6 am

FRIENDS, Not much has changed.  You can pretty much move Memorial Day activities indoors or at least have that as an option.  The word is RAIN, and the two words are NO HURRICANE.

TS Alberto will make for a wet Florida, especially the panhandle.

 

FORECAST: Tropical Storm ALBERTO  is now directly south of Tallahassee and west of Fr. Meyers. I will turn NNW and strengthen in the next 24 hours.  But this is a gusty, rip tide, some

storm surge rainmaker. Alberto will NOT become a hurricane.  Alberto remains unorganized .at this time,  Most likely landfall point point has shifted  some to the east  to just west of Panama City to Pensacola. But all of the Florida Panhandle, and indeed all of the Florida's west coast  should be concerned about rip tides, storm surge to some extent and lots of rain.

We have and will face worse!!  Landfall is likely to be early afternoon Monday, but the weather over most of the panhandle will be rainy with gusts all day.   No chance of it becoming even a weak hurricane.  Remember - stay. out of the water along the Gulf Coast.  Some storm surge along the panhandle and big bend area, including Cedar Key, but not that bad.  The amplitude of surge varies a lot along the coast depending on coastal characteristics.  Gusts, rip tides, and Rain. (And if you are in Tallahassee, a possibility of the culling of trees and limbs)

 

DISCUSSION:  The difficulty is that Tropical Storm Alberto  is disorganized with competing forces.  Warmer waters and diffluence aloft favors intensification,  but other environmental conditions are evolving and mostly mitigate intensification. The net result is some modest intensification but all withing the range of a Tropical Storm and not even close to a hurricane.  Rain, Rain, Gusts, variable Surge, Rip Tides. Enjoy your indoor picnic, and remember what Memorial Day is about:   not  the food, but for those of us alive to collectively remember the sacrifice of those who could not be with us. 

 

Next Forecast: This evening for sure about 9 pm.

Peter S. Ray



DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any
FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased
my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been
touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have
received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the
Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the
citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set
up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of
these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I
acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort
and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for
the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states
at no cost to those who receive it.

NEW BLOG AND DONATIONS:

I have set up a website and blog which may be reached at URL  http://www.hurricanehunt.com   In this website
you can find the forecast, as well as a blog of expanded interests of mine dealing with weather and climate and hurricanes, and an opportunity for you to comment as well.  There is also an opportunity for you to contribute to defraying the increasing costs of maintaining this service, if and only if you want to.  This must always be a not for profit public service and free as long as I have anything to do with it. But I have had offers of help in the past and it is increasingly difficult for me to underwrite all the cost, even with the generous and gracious support form Hayes Computer Systems.


SUBSCRIPTIONS:

Please do NOT send subscription messages to hurricane-forecasts@lists.hcs.net.

You can subscribe by going to www.hurricanehunt.com and going to the subscribe button.

To subscribe or unsubscribe to the hurricane forecast list send an email
to hurricane-forecast-request@lists.hcs.net with "subscribe" or
"unsubscribe" as the subject. You can manage your subscription at:
http://lists.hcs.net/mailman/listinfo/hurricane-forecast_lists.hcs.net
If someone wishes to contact me, they can send an email to hurricanehunter007@gmail.com.

Peter S. Ray

Alberto 5/26

FRIENDS, Not much has changed.  If you have an outside picnic, be close to shelter.  You might be able to  squeeze in an outside event as the weather for most of Florida will not be

much different than it has been, except for an increase in rain probability and Pensacola more within the radius of a "bulls-eye".

 

FORECAST: ALBERTO is unlikely to become a hurricane.  ALBERTO is really unorganized at this time, just getting its act together anthropomorphically speaking. Landfall is likely to be a little east of New Orleans and this increases the effects of the storm eastward to Apalachicola, and puts more focus on places like  Tallahassee which  will be (relatively) marginally impacted, mostly rain and some possible gusts.

 

Landfall is likely to be late late Monday or early Tuesday.  All this depends on how the winds and pressure fields evolve in the path of Alberto.  The changes are not expected to be great, but they will impact the speed, direction and intensity of the storm.  Storm surge, lightning, strong winds and gusts are all part of this system.  But not a hurricane. ALBERTO is entering territory where evolving environmental elements are  critical to its path, speed and intensity.  So that is what I am focused on. (sorry for ending the sentence with a preposition).  Effects on Tallahassee will not be great, except more rain and the possible culling of a few more trees.

 

 

DISCUSSION: Most of the forecast remains intact.  What has and is changing it the environment the ALBERTO is entering. There are elements that are conducive to strengthening and

a faster forward speed, and elements that would favor disorganization, and weakening with a different steering  flow. These are hard to know precisely and the consequences are not great (just a few hours wrt time of landfall, and intensity ( maybe 10 or 15 mph). They are non-the-less important.  For most of Florida, the effects will me minimal. Just (mainly) the western part of the Panhandle. 

 

Next Forecast: Possibly this evening and certainly tomorrow morning. 

 

Peter S. Ray



DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any
FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased
my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been
touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have
received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the
Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the
citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set
up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of
these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I
acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort
and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for
the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states
at no cost to those who receive it.

NEW BLOG AND DONATIONS:

I have set up a website and blog which may be reached at URL  http://www.hurricanehunt.com   In this website
you can find the forecast, as well as a blog of expanded interests of mine dealing with weather and climate and hurricanes, and an opportunity for you to comment as well.  There is also an opportunity for you to contribute to defraying the increasing costs of maintaining this service, if and only if you want to.  This must always be a not for profit public service and free as long as I have anything to do with it. But I have had offers of help in the past and it is increasingly difficult for me to underwrite all the cost, even with the generous and gracious support form Hayes Computer Systems.


SUBSCRIPTIONS:

Please do NOT send subscription messages to hurricane-forecasts@lists.hcs.net.

You can subscribe by going to www.hurricanehunt.com and going to the subscribe button.

To subscribe or unsubscribe to the hurricane forecast list send an email
to hurricane-forecast-request@lists.hcs.net with "subscribe" or
"unsubscribe" as the subject. You can manage your subscription at:
http://lists.hcs.net/mailman/listinfo/hurricane-forecast_lists.hcs.net
If someone wishes to contact me, they can send an email to hurricanehunter007@gmail.com.

Peter S. Ray

 

ALBERTO to be 5/25/2018 7:30pm

FRIENDS, This is an update. The first storm emerges before the official start of the hurricane season. The only change from this mornings outlook is that land-fall will be sooner than I had thought.  The accompanying weather and the land fall location and conditions remain the same.  Just arriving a half a day sooner it seems.  The weather associated with this storm  will be strong gusts, storm surges, and periods of heavy rain along the Gulf Coast as far west as New Orleans.   Landfall appears to be Monday. All of Florida will continue to have rains as it has been. This is an update to this mornings forecast.  Obviously the rains will be more intense near landfall.   Tallahassee will continue to have periods (perhaps a bit extended) on Monday and may also experience gusts, but not of tropical storm conditions. 

 

FORECAST: This storm, to be named Alberto when it becomes a Tropical Storm, has left Yucatan today and has started to move north over reasonably conducive waters and

atmospheric conditions favorable for intensification.   Weather in Florida and along the Gulf coast will continue to be

seasonally rainy with periods of no rain and of intense rain, with the intensity of rain increasing as the storm approaches.  This is primarily a rain event

with serious rip tides (a big big caution about being in the water) with strong gusts.  The Gulf coast will remain as it has been for the next 2 days but things will begin to

"pick up" on Memorial Day, and probably even late Sunday.

 

DISCUSSION: The synoptic pressure field will not provide the higher pressure to the north that I had thought. Thus the forward movement will be faster and thus landfall a half a day

sooner.  The dangers and threats are the same, storm surge, flooding, rip tides, higher sea and the strong wind of a strong Tropical Storm.  Heavy rain will accompany the storm. Until Monday, the weather will continue much as it has been, but slowly degrading.  It still looks like west of Pensacola, perhaps near New Orleans is the  likely place of land fall.  This weekend the weather should be as it has been, with a notable increase in cloudiness and rain and seas that become increasingly rough, with rip tides developing with strong tropical storm force winds. Not a good time to surf aor be in the water. 

 

Next Forecast: Tomorrow morning. 

 

Peter S. Ray



DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any
FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased
my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been
touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have
received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the
Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the
citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set
up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of
these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I
acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort
and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for
the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states
at no cost to those who receive it.

NEW BLOG AND DONATIONS:

I have set up a website and blog which may be reached at URL  http://www.hurricanehunt.com   In this website
you can find the forecast, as well as a blog of expanded interests of mine dealing with weather and climate and hurricanes, and an opportunity for you to comment as well.  There is also an opportunity for you to contribute to defraying the increasing costs of maintaining this service, if and only if you want to.  This must always be a not for profit public service and free as long as I have anything to do with it. But I have had offers of help in the past and it is increasingly difficult for me to underwrite all the cost, even with the generous and gracious support form Hayes Computer Systems.


SUBSCRIPTIONS:

Please do NOT send subscription messages to hurricane-forecasts@lists.hcs.net.

You can subscribe by going to www.hurricanehunt.com and going to the subscribe button.

To subscribe or unsubscribe to the hurricane forecast list send an email
to hurricane-forecast-request@lists.hcs.net with "subscribe" or
"unsubscribe" as the subject. You can manage your subscription at:
http://lists.hcs.net/mailman/listinfo/hurricane-forecast_lists.hcs.net
If someone wishes to contact me, they can send an email to hurricanehunter007@gmail.com.

Peter S. Ray

 

 

 

[hurricane-forecast] HURRICANE ARTHUR 7/4/2014 7am

Friends, This will be the last scheduled report on Arthur since it no longer threatens US land directly. I will be happy to respond to any specific inquiry. FORECAST: HURRICANE ARTHUR has left North Carolina moving NE at 25 mph and with MSW winds of 95 mph. Arthur made landfall on the Outer Islands during low tide which reduced the damage of flooding. Next landfall will be in the Maritime Providences, as a week hurricane or strong tropical storm. There STILL will be squalls, rough seas, strong winds, rain and rip currents all up the east coast, and Boston will have a rough 6 six hours as it makes a close approach to the cape. STAY OUT OF THE WATER unless you want to feed the fish. DISCUSSION: Everything is unfolding as foretold. Have a wonderful 4th with rememberance. And as John Adams said: celebrate with "illuminations", which we also celebrate in our National Anthem. NEXT FORECAST: Next storm Peter Ray DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states at no cost to those who receive it. NEW BLOG AND DONATIONS: I have set up a website and blog which may be reached at URL http://www.hurricanehunt.com In this website you can find the forecast, as well as a blog of expanded interests of mine dealing with weather and climate and hurricanes, and an opportunity for you to comment as well. There is also an opportunity for you to contribute to defraying the increasing costs of maintaining this service, if and only if you want to. This must always be a not for profit public service and free as long as I have anything to do with it. But I have had offers of help in the past and it is increasingly difficult for me to underwrite all the cost, even with the generous and gracious support form Hayes Computer Systems. SUBSCRIPTIONS: Please do NOT send subscription messages to hurricane-forecasts@lists.hcs.net. To subscribe or unsubscribe to the hurricane forecast list send an email to hurricane-forecast-request@lists.hcs.net with "subscribe" or "unsubscribe" as the subject. You can manage your subscription at: http://lists.hcs.net/mailman/listinfo/hurricane-forecast_lists.hcs.net If someone wishes to contact me, they can send an email to hurricanehunter007@gmail.com. Peter S. Ray _______________________________________________ hurricane-forecast mailing list hurricane-forecast@lists.hcs.net http://lists.hcs.net/mailman/listinfo/hurricane-forecast_lists.hcs.net