HURRICANE DANIELLE and Tropical Storm EARL 8/26/2010 5:00 am

Colleagues, FORECAST: HURRICANE DANIELLE has winds of 105 mph, a Category 2 hurricane, about 1300 miles ESE from Miami, moving NW at about 16 mph. Tomorrow it will begin it turn to the north and continue its path as has been forecast for some time now, passing to the east of Bermuda, bringing rain and squalls to that Island on Sunday. It will intensify to a Category 3 storm along the way, but not affect the US directly in any way.

Tropical Storm EARL will become a hurricane this weekend. It's path will be similar to that of DANIELLE but to the south. It will be early to mid next week before EARL approaches to the north of the Leeward Islands. Over all, it looks like a path similar to DANEILLE but shifted a few hundred miles to the west. Presently embedded in the tropical easterlies. moving west at 16 mph with winds of 45 mph. Hurricane status expected over the weekend.

DISCUSSION: A period of weaker shear is allowing HURRICANE DANIELLE to intensify to a major hurricane status. The approaching Trough we mentioned earlier is off the east coast and will intercept DANIELLE late Friday and begin a northward track. DANIELLE will remain well off shore. EARL will be follow much the same path as DANIELLE but to the west. DANIELLE got a kick to the north early in its life, that EARL has not. so the slightly more southerly track results in a more westerly position in its re-curvature or northward movement. The front that will turn DANIELLE north will also impact EARL but later so it will not feel the effects until early to mid next week. I do not see any strong forcing following that, so it will be this weekend before it is possible to know for certain where EARL will end up, but early indications are west of DANIELLE and a closer encounter with the east coast of the US, but north of Florida. A lot will depend on the strength of the trough that far south early next week. I should have some indication of that late this weekend. No sign that Florida will be affected at this time, but we are talking one to two weeks away at this time.

NEXT FORECAST: Friday morning

Peter Ray

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Peter S. Ray

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