Colleagues, We are a week ahead of climatology as far as numbers of named storms. And with soon to be three active storms, we will maintain that pace for at least the next couple of weeks. Existing storms are following forecast tracks, so no surprises so far. FORECAST: HURRICANE DANIELLE has jumped up with winds of 135 mph, making it a Category 4 major hurricane for the next two days, before it begins to dissipate. It has already begun to recurve, that is turn to the north with a turn to the northeast late Saturday. Forward speed is about 11 mph, but it will pick up speed over the weekend as it makes its turn to the NE. Although the storm as tightened some, Rain and squally weather is still a real possibility for Bermuda
Tropical Storm EARL will become a hurricane late this weekend. It's path is similar to that of DANIELLE but to the south. This will ultimately push the path to the west as it moves up the Atlantic coast, west of Bermuda. Bermuda should definitely feel the presence of EARL when the time is appropriate. Florida will not be hit, but I have some concern about North Carolina. It will be early to mid next week before EARL approaches just to the north of the Leeward Islands. Over all, it looks like a path similar to DANEILLE but shifted a few hundred miles to the west. Presently embedded in the tropical easterlies. moving west at 17 mph with winds of 45 mph. Hurricane status expected over the weekend.
Off the coast of Africa, another storm begins to brew, keeping us a bit ahead of the climatology for number of storms by about a week.
DISCUSSION: A period of weaker shear is allowing HURRICANE DANIELLE to intensify to a major hurricane status as was forecast. The approaching Trough we mentioned earlier is off the east coast and will intercept DANIELLE late Friday and begin a northward track. DANIELLE will remain well off shore. over the weekend, increasing shear and cooler waters will begin the weakening process as DANIELLE gets caught up in the mid-latitude westerlies and heads towards Europe.
Tropical Storm EARL will be follow much the same path as DANIELLE but to the west. The situations remains as it was yesterday. DANIELLE got a kick to the north early in its life, that EARL has not. so the slightly more southerly track results in a more westerly position in its re-curvature or northward movement. The front that will turn DANIELLE north will also impact EARL but later so it will not feel the effects until early to mid next week. I do not see any strong forcing following that, so it will be this weekend before it is possible to know for certain where EARL will end up, but early indications are west of DANIELLE and a closer encounter with the east coast of the US, but north of Florida. A lot will depend on the strength of the trough that far south early next week. I should have some indication of that late this weekend. No sign that Florida will be affected at this time, but we are talking one to two weeks away at this time.
Off the coast of Africa, a new storm is brewing.
NEXT FORECAST: Saturday morning
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