HURRICANE DANIELLE and Tropical Storm EARL and soon to be Fiona8/28/2010 6:00 am

Colleagues, We are a week ahead of climatology as far as numbers of named storms. And with soon to be three active storms, we will maintain that pace for at least the next couple of weeks. Existing storms are following forecast tracks, so no surprises so far. FORECAST: HURRICANE DANIELLE is on the decline with winds now of 110 mph and slowly decreasing. DANIELLE is a few hundred miles southeast of Bermuda, moving north. DANIELLE will be recurring to to the NE and head toward England where it will bring some rains. It poses no threat to anywhere in the USA.

The forecast for EARL remains unchanged. Tropical Storm EARL will become a hurricane late Sunday. It's present path is similar to that of DANIELLE but to the south. This will ultimately push the path to the west as it moves up the Atlantic coast, west of Bermuda. Bermuda should definitely feel the presence of EARL. Florida will not be hit, but North Carolina will have high surf and intermittent heavy rain at least. On Monday, EARL (a hurricane) will pass to the north of the Leeward Islands. Over all, it looks like a path similar to DANEILLE but shifted a few hundred miles to the west. Presently embedded in the tropical easterlies. moving west at 20 mph with winds of 60 mph. Hurricane status expected Sunday. Closest approach to Florida, 700 miles.

Off the coast of Africa, another storm begins to brew, keeping us a bit ahead of the climatology for number of storms by about a week. It will take the name of FIONA in the next few days. and given the general circulation, is likely to have a similar track as DANIELLE and EARL, just like a train.

DISCUSSION: HURRICANE DANIELLE will only be a factor in that, as forecast, it will bring some rain and squalls to Bermuda. It is now becoming embedded ith the mid-latitude westerlies as it continues to weaken.

Tropical Storm EARL will be follow much the same path as DANIELLE but to the west. The front that will turn DANIELLE north will also impact EARL but later so it will not feel the effects until early to mid next week. But timing and intensity will dictate how far off the coast EARL is as it moves up the east coast. It will be several hundreds of miles closer to land, and certainly impact Bermuda, but still no USA landfall.

Off the coast of Africa, a new storm is brewing, and FIONA (to be), in my opinion, will follow a path and life history similar to EARL

NEXT FORECAST: Sunday morning

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Peter S. Ray

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