HURRICANE DANIELLE and Tropical Storm EARL and soon to be Fiona8/29/2010 6:00 am

Colleagues, FORECAST: HURRICANE DANIELLE is on the decline with winds now of 90 mph and slowly decreasing. DANIELLE is about 700 mi ENE of Bermuda and moveinfg NE at 20 mph. It is will only be a hurricane 2 more days. Now caught up in the mid-latitude westerlies, strong shear and cold water.

The forecast for EARL remains unchanged. Tropical Storm EARL will become a hurricane late Today. EARL is almost directly south of DANIELLE, about 400 east of the Leeward Islands and the same latitude as Jamaica. EARL has msw of 65 mph and moving W at 18 mph. Early is beginning a slow turn to the north which will bring it just north of Puerto Rico and the Bahamas. The path of EARL will bring it up the Atlantic Coast, west of Bermuda. Bermuda should definitely feel the presence of EARL. Florida will not be hit, but North Carolina will experience high surf, near tropical storm force winds, strong gusts possibly of hurricane force, and intermittent heavy rain, heavy surf, rip tides, storm surge of several feet. This will be at the end of the week. Closest approach to Florida, 600 miles.

Off the coast of Africa, another storm begins to brew, keeping us a bit ahead of the climatology for number of storms by about a week. It will take the name of FIONA in the next few days. and given the general circulation, is likely to have a similar track as DANIELLE and EARL.

DISCUSSION: Tropical Storm EARL will be follow much the same path as DANIELLE but to the west. The front that will turn DANIELLE north will also impact EARL but later so it will not feel the effects until early to mid next week. But timing and intensity will dictate how far off the coast EARL is as it moves up the east coast. It will be several hundreds of miles closer to land, and certainly impact Bermuda, but still no USA landfall.

Off the coast of Africa, a new storm is brewing, and FIONA (to be), in my opinion.

NEXT FORECAST: Monday morning

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