HURRICANE DANIELLE and Tropical Storm EARL and soon to be Fiona8/29/2010 6:00 am

Colleagues, FORECAST: HURRICANE DANIELLE is on the decline with winds now of 90 mph and slowly decreasing. DANIELLE is about 700 mi ENE of Bermuda and moveinfg NE at 20 mph. It is will only be a hurricane 2 more days. Now caught up in the mid-latitude westerlies, strong shear and cold water.

The forecast for EARL remains unchanged. Tropical Storm EARL will become a hurricane late Today. EARL is almost directly south of DANIELLE, about 400 east of the Leeward Islands and the same latitude as Jamaica. EARL has msw of 65 mph and moving W at 18 mph. Early is beginning a slow turn to the north which will bring it just north of Puerto Rico and the Bahamas. The path of EARL will bring it up the Atlantic Coast, west of Bermuda. Bermuda should definitely feel the presence of EARL. Florida will not be hit, but North Carolina will experience high surf, near tropical storm force winds, strong gusts possibly of hurricane force, and intermittent heavy rain, heavy surf, rip tides, storm surge of several feet. This will be at the end of the week. Closest approach to Florida, 600 miles.

Off the coast of Africa, another storm begins to brew, keeping us a bit ahead of the climatology for number of storms by about a week. It will take the name of FIONA in the next few days. and given the general circulation, is likely to have a similar track as DANIELLE and EARL.

DISCUSSION: Tropical Storm EARL will be follow much the same path as DANIELLE but to the west. The front that will turn DANIELLE north will also impact EARL but later so it will not feel the effects until early to mid next week. But timing and intensity will dictate how far off the coast EARL is as it moves up the east coast. It will be several hundreds of miles closer to land, and certainly impact Bermuda, but still no USA landfall.

Off the coast of Africa, a new storm is brewing, and FIONA (to be), in my opinion.

NEXT FORECAST: Monday morning

DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states at no cost to those who receive it.

NEW BLOG AND DONATIONS:

I have set up a website and blog which may be reached at URL http://www.hurricanehunt.com In this website you can find the forecast, as well as a blog of expanded interests of mine dealing with weather and climate and hurricanes, and an opportunity for you to comment as well. There is also an opportunity for you to contribute to defraying the increasing costs of maintaining this service, if and only if you want to. This must always be a not for profit public service and free as long as I have anything to do with it. But I have had offers of help in the past and it is increasingly difficult for me to underwrite all the cost, even with the generous and gracious support form Hayes Computer Systems.

SUBSCRIPTIONS:

Please do NOT send subscription messages to hurricane-forecasts@lists.hcs.net.

To subscribe or unsubscribe to the hurricane forecast list send an email to hurricane-forecast-request@lists.hcs.net with "subscribe" or "unsubscribe" as the subject. You can manage your subscription at: http://lists.hcs.net/mailman/listinfo/hurricane-forecast_lists.hcs.net If someone wishes to contact me, they can send an email to hurricanehunter007@gmail.com.

Peter S. Ray

_______________________________________________ hurricane-forecast mailing list hurricane-forecast@lists.hcs.net http://lists.hcs.net/mailman/listinfo/hurricane-forecast_lists.hcs.net