HURRICANE DANIELLE and EARL and soon to be Fiona 8/30/2010 6:00 am

Colleagues, I will be posting a new blog later today, and begin a series in a few days on global warming. These can be found on http://www.hurricanehunt.com

FORECAST: This is the last day for HURRICANE DANIELLE which will loose its status in a few hours, and will be dropped.

HURRICANE EARL is already a Category 2 storm with winds of 105 mph, and increasing and will become a major Hurricane tomorrow as it begins a slow turn to the north which will bring it just north of Puerto Rico and the Bahamas but headed toward North Carolina. The path of EARL will bring it up the Atlantic Coast, west of Bermuda. Friday will be judgment day. Bermuda should definitely feel the presence of EARL. Florida will not be hit, but North Carolina will experience probably hurricane force winds, heavy rain, rip tides, storm surge of several up to 10 feet. This will be at the end of the week. Closest approach to Florida, 600 miles. A trough (Front) currently in the western mid west may get to the east coast in time to change the direction from NW to N to NE on Friday. Right now, that is a very close call. No chance for a Florida landfall, or even close approach. Should know more about approach to North Carolina by tomorrow.

Off the coast of Africa, another storm begins to brew, keeping us a bit ahead of the climatology for number of storms by about a week. It will take the name of FIONA in the next few days. and given the general circulation, is likely to have a similar track as DANIELLE and EARL and end up close to Bermuda.

DISCUSSION: All computer models show HURRICANE EARL staying out to sea, but they are not always accurate at this time extent, and when they are, t is sometimes for the wrong reasons. My model shows a close call. It all depends on the timing of that trough. But timing and intensity will dictate how far off the coast EARL is as it moves up the east coast.

NEXT FORECAST: TUESDAY morning

DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states at no cost to those who receive it.

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Peter S. Ray

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