Colleagues, Some additional information.
A new blog has been posted. Later this week I want to post one on what does 60% chance of rain really mean. Then later still or early next week a series on what I think is real about Global Warming. These can be found on http://www.hurricanehunt.com
FORECAST: Forecasts remain essentially unchanged. HURRICANE EARL is now a dangerous major category 3 Hurricane with winds of 125 mph, located north of Dominican Republic and about the same latitude as Miami, but 700 miles to the east . Movement is NW at 16 mph. The forecast for HURRICANE EARL remains the same as it begins a slow turn to the north which will bring it north very close to Cape Hatteras and North Carolina early Friday. Florida will not be hit, but the east coast of North Carolina will experience hurricane force winds, heavy rain, rip tides, storm surge of several up to 10 feet. The whole east coast north of Georgia, to Newfoundland will experience rain, squally weather, high surf, rip tides, but make no mistake, eastern North Carolina will get the worst of it. Closest approach to Florida, 400 miles so we will get somewhat higher surf and some rip tides, but not the full effect by far. If you are cautious in the water, or say out toward the end of the week, you should be ok.
It is quite possible for EARL to nick the coast of NC, Cape Cod, and Newfoundland. It will remain a powerful storm all the way up the coast only slowly weakening. I think the east coast of NC will receive hurricane force winds and appropriate evacuations are in order.
Tropical Storm FIONA has winds of 45 mph, located 500 miles east of the Puerto Rico Islands, moving WNW, but beginning to move more northerly. FIONA will likely end up going between Between Bermuda and the US coast, probably still as a Tropical Storm. It will trail behind and to the east of EARL, and never become a hurricane.
Off the coast of Africa, another storm begins to brew, keeping us a bit ahead of the climatology for number of storms by about a week.
DISCUSSION: All computer models show HURRICANE EARL staying out to sea But my model shows a close call. More recent government models do show it also coming closer to land. It will be a close call, and perhaps a distinction without meaning. The east coast of North Carolina will be hit by hurricane force winds, and all up the East coast should anticipate strong Tropical Storm force winds. Details all depend on the timing of that trough. Right now, it looks like it might arrive just in time to keep it off shore, but we are talking about a difference of hours, not days. What the Front (trough) has going for it is that it is a strong one, with much cooler temperatures behind it. So it can have more than usual effect ahead of it, which can in some way compensate for lack of speed. The timing and intensity of the trough will dictate how far off the coast EARL is as it moves up the east coast. A trough (Front) currently in mid west may get to the east coast in time to change the direction from NW to N to NE on Friday. Right now, that is a very close call. No chance for a Florida landfall, or even close approach.HURRICANE EARL will weaken after North Carolina as it encounters cooler seas, more shear and dryer air. All bad news for a hurricane but it will remain a force to be reckoned with all the way up the east coast.
There are about 3 systems remaining to come off Africa. We will probably slip down into to closer to an average rather than an active season, unless something changes in the next month.
NEXT FORECAST: Thursday morning
DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states at no cost to those who receive it.
NEW BLOG AND DONATIONS:
I have set up a website and blog which may be reached at URL http://www.hurricanehunt.com In this website you can find the forecast, as well as a blog of expanded interests of mine dealing with weather and climate and hurricanes, and an opportunity for you to comment as well. There is also an opportunity for you to contribute to defraying the increasing costs of maintaining this service, if and only if you want to. This must always be a not for profit public service and free as long as I have anything to do with it. But I have had offers of help in the past and it is increasingly difficult for me to underwrite all the cost, even with the generous and gracious support form Hayes Computer Systems.
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Peter S. Ray
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