Colleagues, EAST Coast, brace yourself for Squally weather (or if you prefer, "Stormy Weather"). Near Tropical Storm force winds, rip tides, large swells, winds and rain are to be expected all up the east coast through Saturday.
FORECAST: Forecasts remain essentially unchanged. HURRICANE EARL is now a Category 2 Hurricane with winds of 105 mph, passing the outer banks of North Caroline, moving NNE at 18 mph. The outer banks of North Carolina are experience near hurricane force winds, heavy rain, rip tides, storm surge 6- 9 feet. Tropical Storm force winds will be felt along the coast. HURRICANE EARL will start to weaken but remain a hurricane most of the way up the east coast. Boston will experience Tropical Storm winds, Manchester by-the-Sea, Mass will experience near, but less than Tropical Storm force winds. By Saturday afternoon, the storm will be in Canada.
Tropical Storm FIONA has winds of 50 mph, located over Bermuda, moving NNW at 17 mph. FIONA will likely end up going over Bermuda as Tropical Storm. NO threat to the US.
Tropical Storm GASTON is still 1000 east of the Leeward Island. But, it is on a more southerly track, at 15 deg N Latitude headed right for the Leeward islands and if it continues this pathcould lead to a landfall in the Gulf in 2 or 3 weeks. That is a long forecast to make. I will look more closely at this weekend after Earl is past most of the US.
Off the coast of Africa, another storm begins to brew, keeping us a bit ahead of the climatology for number of storms by about a week.
DISCUSSION: The eye of EARL will just missed land. The Outer Banks of North Carolina will be hit by hurricane force winds, and all up the East coast should anticipate strong Tropical Storm force winds. HURRICANE EARL will continue weaken after North Carolina as it encounters cooler seas, more shear and dryer air as it begins its transition to an extra-tropical system. All bad news for a hurricane but it will remain a force to be reckoned with all the way up the east coast.
There are about 3 systems remaining to come off Africa. We will probably slip down into to closer to an average rather than an active season, unless something changes in the next month.
NEXT FORECAST: Saturday morning
DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states at no cost to those who receive it.
NEW BLOG AND DONATIONS:
I have set up a website and blog which may be reached at URL http://www.hurricanehunt.com In this website you can find the forecast, as well as a blog of expanded interests of mine dealing with weather and climate and hurricanes, and an opportunity for you to comment as well. There is also an opportunity for you to contribute to defraying the increasing costs of maintaining this service, if and only if you want to. This must always be a not for profit public service and free as long as I have anything to do with it. But I have had offers of help in the past and it is increasingly difficult for me to underwrite all the cost, even with the generous and gracious support form Hayes Computer Systems.
Please do NOT send subscription messages to firstname.lastname@example.org.
To subscribe or unsubscribe to the hurricane forecast list send an email to email@example.com with "subscribe" or "unsubscribe" as the subject. You can manage your subscription at: http://lists.hcs.net/mailman/listinfo/hurricane-forecast_lists.hcs.net If someone wishes to contact me, they can send an email to firstname.lastname@example.org.
Peter S. Ray
_______________________________________________ hurricane-forecast mailing list email@example.com http://lists.hcs.net/mailman/listinfo/hurricane-forecast_lists.hcs.net