Tropical Storm EARL, Tropical Depression FIONA 9/4/2010 5:30 pm

Colleagues, Every system is dead or dying. It may be the peak of the season, but nothing will threaten us in the USA for at least a week, and probably longer. At least that is the way I see it.

However, I am posting later today (Saturday) a new blog of the meaning of a 30% chance of rain. You can read the blog and more at

FORECAST: Hurricane Earl weakened and is now a Tropical Storm EARL with winds of 70 mph located about 100 miles off the coast of Massachusetts, headed NE at 30 mph. By Saturday noontime, EARL will have made landfall in Nova Scotia.

Tropical Storm FIONA weakened and has become a tropical depression with winds of 30 mph, located over Bermuda, moving NE at 13 mph. NO threat to the US.

Tropical Storm GASTON weakened and no longer qualifies as a Tropical Storms. Meantime, off the coast of Africa, another storm begins to brew but I do not expect significant development from it or for it to even get within 2000 miles of the USA.

DISCUSSION: Tropical Storm Earl continues to gradually loose strength as in is embedded in every form of hostile environment. The Boston area did experience Tropical Storm winds, but further north the effects will be be just high winds, heavy rain, squally weather and higher than normal surf. Equivalent to a strong "Noreaster".

There are about 3 systems remaining to come off Africa. Even though this is in the peak of the season, I do not see significant development for about a week.

NEXT FORECAST: The next developing tropical system.

DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states at no cost to those who receive it.


I have set up a website and blog which may be reached at URL In this website you can find the forecast, as well as a blog of expanded interests of mine dealing with weather and climate and hurricanes, and an opportunity for you to comment as well. There is also an opportunity for you to contribute to defraying the increasing costs of maintaining this service, if and only if you want to. This must always be a not for profit public service and free as long as I have anything to do with it. But I have had offers of help in the past and it is increasingly difficult for me to underwrite all the cost, even with the generous and gracious support form Hayes Computer Systems.


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Peter S. Ray

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