Tropical Storm IGOR, 9/9/2010 4:30am

Colleagues, I will begin a series of blogs related to global warming in the next few days. If interested, check it out at http://www.hurricanehunt.com FORECAST: Tropical Storm IGOR (no offense, but where did that name come from?) is presently just off the coast of Africa near the Cape Verde Islands about 15 N, with winds of 35 mph and not moving. However movement will be generally WNW and accelerating in the next week as IGOR intensifies, becoming a hurricane Sunday. It will be the end of next week before IGOR gets near the longitude of the leeward islands, but I believe will pass to the north of those island, if IGOR even gets that far west. Although it is a 10 days from now, I do not think IGOR will come close to Florida, and there is a good chance it will miss the USA altogether. It may be possible to speak more definitely about that as early as this weekend.

DISCUSSION: If my analysis is incorrect, then all the comments above will have to be modified, but with every piece of new data I see, the indications are supporting the forecast - so far. IGOR is presently really not even a Tropical Storm, but it is moving (albeit slowly) toward warm waters and low shear, so I do expect it to regain strength and then some. There is generally a large subtropical ridge that is pushing these storms to the west, however there are some troughs that periodically come by, and one is emerging off the east coast of the USA now, that next week will cause a weakness in the ridge and urge the parth more northerly. We should see this around Tuesday. What happens after that will depend on how strong the weakening is. It is possible there will be an indication of that later this weekend, but it probably will not be really clear until early next week. But given what is most likely, I do not see IGOR hitting Florida, and there is a reasonable chance so far, it could miss the whole of the USA, depending on the strength of the weakening. At this stage of developments, some of the details of the forecast will certainly fluctuate as this weak of a storm is more sensitive to weaker changes in its environment. So far it looks a lot like the storms we have seen before this year.

NEXT FORECAST: Tomorrow morning, Friday September 10

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Peter S. Ray

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