Tropical Depression IGOR 9/10/2010 4:00 am

Colleagues, I have posted the first in about 4 parts looking at all sides of the global warming debate. The others will follow every few days as I have time to put them together.

Today is the day of climatological maximum hurricane activity.

FORECAST: IGOR is for the moment struggling, having gone from a weak tropical storm to a depression. By tomorrow IGOR will be back to a tropical storm and by the end of the weekend, a hurricane as the storm moves into favorable waters. It is still basically off the coast of Africa, but moving again about 12 mph toward the WNW. It is 10 days to 2 weeks away from coming close, but at this point it looks like it will miss Florida and probably all the USA. The path will be similar to that of the recent hurricanes this season. Winds are now 35 mph, but will be increasing from now to at least the middle of next week.

An area of disturbance off the Windward Island is worthy of watching. It could organize and intensify next week as it slowly drifts westward.

DISCUSSION: IGOR is moving into a favorable environment today and will begin its strengthening. The subtropical ridge is steering it nearly westward for the next few days. A trough should move it northward early next week and I think gradually move it toward the NW as moves past the mid Atlantic region. How much will be determined by the strength of the approaching trough and the developing trough in the western USA. It looks like to me that late next week it will be turned north off the east coast.

NEXT FORECAST: Saturday morning.

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Peter S. Ray

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