Colleagues, FORECAST: Tropical Storm IGOR has reagin its strength and is continue to strengthen, becoming a hurricane later today and a major hurricane Tuesday. I still think IGOR will miss Florida and probably all the USA as all indications it will follow a path similar to those of the last three systems this Summer. Present position is 750 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. Winds are 70 mph (nearly a hurricane), and while the movement is now West, my mid week it should veer north wards as it approaches the Windward islands. It is gets pass 20N before it gets to 60W, we are safe. To do that, the turn will have to start before Wednesday.
The disturbance in the Windward Islands is slowly moving into the Caribbean Sea and slowly gaining strength. At this time it does not appear to be a threat to Florida, but it bears watching.
DISCUSSION: IGOR will continue to strengthen. All environmental conditions support strengthening. IGOR is moving at a crisp 20 mph. by mid week, IGOR should be a Major hurricane (Category 3). By mid week I should know if any part of the USA is threatened. At this point, no. By Wed, IGOR should be rounding the western edge of the subtropical ridge and entering a trough region. which will gradually swing the major storm to the NW and recurve as it approaches the mid-latitude westerlies, ultimately being caught up in a frontal system currently in the mid-west.
NEXT FORECAST: Sunday morning.
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Peter S. Ray
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