HURRICANE IGOR 9/12/2010 6:30 am

Colleagues, Not much change in the forecast.

FORECAST: HURRICANE IGOR is now a Category 1 hurricane1,400 miles directly east of Puerto Rico moving west at 18 mph. By mid week it will become a major hurricane. The path on Tuesday will begin to curve northward and, while it will miss Florida and very probably all of the USA, Bermuda should be aware that early in the week of the 19th that they will experience rough weather.

DISCUSSION: Most intensity models have IGOR becoming a major (Category 4 in this this case) hurricane in less than a week as it moves over warm waters with low shear (where the winds are not increaseing in speed with height). However, when it gets to Bermuda, the winds will have weakened some from their peak value. I believe that IGOR will pass west of Bermuda, but that is bad news for Bermuda since the eastern quadrant of the storm is the the most violent. The combination of the subtropical ridge weakening and a broad trough in the western Atlantic, enhance by an approaching strong front currently in Midwestern US, will keep IGOR away from the US mainland.

There are two other areas of tropical development, one south of Haiti, the other off the coast of Africa. The one in the Caribbean is slowly gaining strength as it moves generally in the direction of the Yucatan. Major threat at present is localized flooding in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola for the next few days. The disturbed area near Cape Verde Islands will intensify over the next few days, but will stay in the Atlantic and well removed from the USA.

NEXT FORECAST: Monday morning

Peter Ray

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Peter S. Ray

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