HURRICANE IGOR, Tropical Storm

Colleagues, FORECAST: HURRICANE IGOR is a dangerous Category 4 hurricane with sustained (msw) winds of 150 mph, located about 1,200 miles due east of Puerto Rico. HURRICANE IGOR developed explosively and may today even briefly become a Category 5 Hurricane as it both slowly begins a turn to the NW and heads toward the vicinity of Bermuda and gradually weaken. IGOR will certainly miss Florida, and as I have said before, I think it will pass to the west of Bermuda, but still be a significant storm when it passes that island next week.

The storm around Cape Verde has strengthened enough to become Tropical Storm Julia. Julia is moving to the NW and will become a hurricane late Tuesday, but will not intensify that much and pass by the USA in the mid-Atlantic, not coming close.

The area of convection in the Caribbean is now just SW of Jamaica and headed toward the Yucatan. So far, it remains disorganized. It could become a tropical storm, but so far has resisted that opportunity.

DISCUSSION: The reasoning remains the same, we just have to see how it plays out with IGOR.

NEXT FORECAST: Tuesday morning

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Peter S. Ray

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