HURRICANE IGOR, Tropical Storm

Colleagues, FORECAST: HURRICANE IGOR is a dangerous Category 4 hurricane with sustained (msw) winds of 150 mph, located about 1,200 miles due east of Puerto Rico. HURRICANE IGOR developed explosively and may today even briefly become a Category 5 Hurricane as it both slowly begins a turn to the NW and heads toward the vicinity of Bermuda and gradually weaken. IGOR will certainly miss Florida, and as I have said before, I think it will pass to the west of Bermuda, but still be a significant storm when it passes that island next week.

The storm around Cape Verde has strengthened enough to become Tropical Storm Julia. Julia is moving to the NW and will become a hurricane late Tuesday, but will not intensify that much and pass by the USA in the mid-Atlantic, not coming close.

The area of convection in the Caribbean is now just SW of Jamaica and headed toward the Yucatan. So far, it remains disorganized. It could become a tropical storm, but so far has resisted that opportunity.

DISCUSSION: The reasoning remains the same, we just have to see how it plays out with IGOR.

NEXT FORECAST: Tuesday morning

DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states at no cost to those who receive it.


I have set up a website and blog which may be reached at URL In this website you can find the forecast, as well as a blog of expanded interests of mine dealing with weather and climate and hurricanes, and an opportunity for you to comment as well. There is also an opportunity for you to contribute to defraying the increasing costs of maintaining this service, if and only if you want to. This must always be a not for profit public service and free as long as I have anything to do with it. But I have had offers of help in the past and it is increasingly difficult for me to underwrite all the cost, even with the generous and gracious support form Hayes Computer Systems.


Please do NOT send subscription messages to

To subscribe or unsubscribe to the hurricane forecast list send an email to with "subscribe" or "unsubscribe" as the subject. You can manage your subscription at: If someone wishes to contact me, they can send an email to

Peter S. Ray

_______________________________________________ hurricane-forecast mailing list