Colleagues, Forecasts remain the same.

FORECAST: HURRICANE IGOR is a dangerous Category 4 hurricane with winds of 135 mph, 800 miles east of Puerto Rico, moving WNW at 8 mph. It is beginning its turn to the NW now and will begin to weaken toward the end of the week, but IGOR is headed right for Bermuda, where it will reach late Saturday night. IGOR will miss all of the USA by hundreds of miles. If it should miss Bermuda by a few miles, which is probable, it would help Bermuda a lot since the maximum wind speed falls off quickly with distance from the eye. Up the east coast the surf will be a bit rougher due to the presence of IGOR to the east.

HURRICANE JULIA is minimal hurricane in the mid Atlantic and it is not going to strengthen and not going to come close to anything. After this week, it will be gone.

DISCUSSION: IGOR is at the western edge of the ridge and entering the land of the troughs. The tropical disturbance in the Caribbean is a few hundred miles east of the Yucatan and will go over the Yucatan peninsula, and if anything is left of it after being over land, it will enter the Bay of Campeche and then Mexico. No threat to the USA at all.

NEXT FORECAST: Wednesday morning

DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states at no cost to those who receive it.


I have set up a website and blog which may be reached at URL In this website you can find the forecast, as well as a blog of expanded interests of mine dealing with weather and climate and hurricanes, and an opportunity for you to comment as well. There is also an opportunity for you to contribute to defraying the increasing costs of maintaining this service, if and only if you want to. This must always be a not for profit public service and free as long as I have anything to do with it. But I have had offers of help in the past and it is increasingly difficult for me to underwrite all the cost, even with the generous and gracious support form Hayes Computer Systems.


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Peter S. Ray

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