HURRICANES IGOR, JULIA, Tropical Storm KARL, 9/15/2010 5:00am

Colleagues, All storms are holding to their forecasts.

FORECAST: HURRICANE IGOR is a Category 4 hurricane with winds of 145 mph headed right on the predicted path for a meeting with Bermuda on Sunday. If it isn't a bulls-eye, it probably will be be slightly to the west, which would help some, but Bermuda would still be exposed to the more damaging winds on the east side. Better, if it is going to miss, that it miss to the east. IGOR will weakens some over the weekend, but winds are likely to be in the 120 mph range at landfall. No threat to the USA, but from North Caroline north, coastal waters will be rougher.

HURRICANE JULIA is now west of Cape Verde Islands, with winds of 135 mph, headed NW in the direction of Bermuda. However, JULIA will shortly begin to weaken and recurve (turn around) over the weekend well east (1000 miles) of Bermuda. No threat to any land area.

Tropical Storm Karl is about to make landfall in the Yucatan, where it will weaken as it crosses land. Once in the Bay of Campeche some reintensification will occur before it makes landfall in central Mexico. No threat to the USA at all.

DISCUSSION: IGOR is moving along the subtropical ridge but is beginning to round the SW corner which will be talking it initially on a NW and then a northerly course at the end of the week. Intensity in the next few days will be fluctuating, but toward the end of the week IGOR will begin to weaken.

NEXT FORECAST: Thursday morning

Peter Ray

DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states at no cost to those who receive it.

NEW BLOG AND DONATIONS:

I have set up a website and blog which may be reached at URL http://www.hurricanehunt.com In this website you can find the forecast, as well as a blog of expanded interests of mine dealing with weather and climate and hurricanes, and an opportunity for you to comment as well. There is also an opportunity for you to contribute to defraying the increasing costs of maintaining this service, if and only if you want to. This must always be a not for profit public service and free as long as I have anything to do with it. But I have had offers of help in the past and it is increasingly difficult for me to underwrite all the cost, even with the generous and gracious support form Hayes Computer Systems.

SUBSCRIPTIONS:

Please do NOT send subscription messages to hurricane-forecasts@lists.hcs.net.

To subscribe or unsubscribe to the hurricane forecast list send an email to hurricane-forecast-request@lists.hcs.net with "subscribe" or "unsubscribe" as the subject. You can manage your subscription at: http://lists.hcs.net/mailman/listinfo/hurricane-forecast_lists.hcs.net If someone wishes to contact me, they can send an email to hurricanehunter007@gmail.com.

Peter S. Ray

_______________________________________________ hurricane-forecast mailing list hurricane-forecast@lists.hcs.net http://lists.hcs.net/mailman/listinfo/hurricane-forecast_lists.hcs.net