HURRICANES IGOR, JULIA, Tropical Storm KARL, 9/15/2010 5:00am

Colleagues, All storms are holding to their forecasts.

FORECAST: HURRICANE IGOR is a Category 4 hurricane with winds of 145 mph headed right on the predicted path for a meeting with Bermuda on Sunday. If it isn't a bulls-eye, it probably will be be slightly to the west, which would help some, but Bermuda would still be exposed to the more damaging winds on the east side. Better, if it is going to miss, that it miss to the east. IGOR will weakens some over the weekend, but winds are likely to be in the 120 mph range at landfall. No threat to the USA, but from North Caroline north, coastal waters will be rougher.

HURRICANE JULIA is now west of Cape Verde Islands, with winds of 135 mph, headed NW in the direction of Bermuda. However, JULIA will shortly begin to weaken and recurve (turn around) over the weekend well east (1000 miles) of Bermuda. No threat to any land area.

Tropical Storm Karl is about to make landfall in the Yucatan, where it will weaken as it crosses land. Once in the Bay of Campeche some reintensification will occur before it makes landfall in central Mexico. No threat to the USA at all.

DISCUSSION: IGOR is moving along the subtropical ridge but is beginning to round the SW corner which will be talking it initially on a NW and then a northerly course at the end of the week. Intensity in the next few days will be fluctuating, but toward the end of the week IGOR will begin to weaken.

NEXT FORECAST: Thursday morning

Peter Ray

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Peter S. Ray

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