Colleagues, The forecasts continue to be holding true.

FORECAST: By tomorrow afternoon, HURRICANE IGOR will be a weakening major hurricane with winds of about 115 mph 1,000 miles east of Miami. It is moving NW now at 10 mph. and the trajectory is for a continued northward swing and a landfall in Bermuda early Monday morning with winds about 100 mph. Be aware of periodically heavy surf from North Carolina north, much like Bonnie earlier this year. Some rip currents, but near the US coast not unlike what is often experience by passing strong frontal systems or winter "Bombs".

HURRICANE JULIA is now only a Category one hurricane, also recurving (turning north) and weakening, no longer a hurricane after today. It is in the mid Atlantic.

HURRICANE KARL is about 30 off the coast of central Mexico coming ashore this afternoon (actually already starting) as a Major Hurricane. There it will quickly die (in one day). Major damage along the coast.

DISCUSSION: IGOR is gradually weakening and will, begining next week, becoming extratropical. IGOR is rounding the ridge now.

NEXT FORECAST: Saturday morning.

DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states at no cost to those who receive it.


I have set up a website and blog which may be reached at URL In this website you can find the forecast, as well as a blog of expanded interests of mine dealing with weather and climate and hurricanes, and an opportunity for you to comment as well. There is also an opportunity for you to contribute to defraying the increasing costs of maintaining this service, if and only if you want to. This must always be a not for profit public service and free as long as I have anything to do with it. But I have had offers of help in the past and it is increasingly difficult for me to underwrite all the cost, even with the generous and gracious support form Hayes Computer Systems.


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Peter S. Ray

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