HURRICANE IGOR, Tropical Storm JULIA 9/18/2010 5:30 am

Colleagues, FORECAST: HURRICANE IGOR is temporary in a strengthening phase this weekend but barely a Category 3 storm with msw winds of 110 mph. Looks like landfall on Bermuda with winds about 100 mph and a Category 2 storm early Monday morning. This is a powerful large storm. From the Carolinas north expect heavy seas, rip currents and possibly a rare squall along the coast, but increasing in intensity and frequency as you go off the coast.

Tropical Storm Julia, continues to weaken in the mid Atlantic, slowly decreasing in strength and not a threat to anything or anybody.

DISCUSSION: HURRICANE IGOR is right on track for a early Monday morning rendezvous with Bermuda. And approaching trough, is, as forecast, weakening the ridge and will cause IGOR to make this graceful arc, turn to the north and then the northeast into the open ocean where it will become a powerful extra-tropical Low.

Once hurricane KARL, it is now a weak storm with winds of 25 mph and, of course, rain over central Mexico. Don't be surprised if Florida does not get hit by a hurricane this season, but do not get complacent either. Although we have been lucky so far, usually we do get hit by about 2 a year. Just don't see any chance for the next two weeks and after that we are on the down side of hurricane activity, even though we have two months remaining in the hurricane season. It still could happen, but there is a 50% chance of no Florida landfalls this season. It looks like to me that if we do get a landfall, it would be from a storm that forms in the Caribbean, not off the coast of Africa.

NEXT FORECAST: Sunday

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Peter S. Ray

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