Colleagues, FORECAST: HURRICANE IGOR is temporary in a strengthening phase this weekend but barely a Category 3 storm with msw winds of 110 mph. Looks like landfall on Bermuda with winds about 100 mph and a Category 2 storm early Monday morning. This is a powerful large storm. From the Carolinas north expect heavy seas, rip currents and possibly a rare squall along the coast, but increasing in intensity and frequency as you go off the coast.
Tropical Storm Julia, continues to weaken in the mid Atlantic, slowly decreasing in strength and not a threat to anything or anybody.
DISCUSSION: HURRICANE IGOR is right on track for a early Monday morning rendezvous with Bermuda. And approaching trough, is, as forecast, weakening the ridge and will cause IGOR to make this graceful arc, turn to the north and then the northeast into the open ocean where it will become a powerful extra-tropical Low.
Once hurricane KARL, it is now a weak storm with winds of 25 mph and, of course, rain over central Mexico. Don't be surprised if Florida does not get hit by a hurricane this season, but do not get complacent either. Although we have been lucky so far, usually we do get hit by about 2 a year. Just don't see any chance for the next two weeks and after that we are on the down side of hurricane activity, even though we have two months remaining in the hurricane season. It still could happen, but there is a 50% chance of no Florida landfalls this season. It looks like to me that if we do get a landfall, it would be from a storm that forms in the Caribbean, not off the coast of Africa.
NEXT FORECAST: Sunday
DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states at no cost to those who receive it.
NEW BLOG AND DONATIONS:
I have set up a website and blog which may be reached at URL http://www.hurricanehunt.com In this website you can find the forecast, as well as a blog of expanded interests of mine dealing with weather and climate and hurricanes, and an opportunity for you to comment as well. There is also an opportunity for you to contribute to defraying the increasing costs of maintaining this service, if and only if you want to. This must always be a not for profit public service and free as long as I have anything to do with it. But I have had offers of help in the past and it is increasingly difficult for me to underwrite all the cost, even with the generous and gracious support form Hayes Computer Systems.
Please do NOT send subscription messages to firstname.lastname@example.org.
To subscribe or unsubscribe to the hurricane forecast list send an email to email@example.com with "subscribe" or "unsubscribe" as the subject. You can manage your subscription at: http://lists.hcs.net/mailman/listinfo/hurricane-forecast_lists.hcs.net If someone wishes to contact me, they can send an email to firstname.lastname@example.org.
Peter S. Ray
_______________________________________________ hurricane-forecast mailing list email@example.com http://lists.hcs.net/mailman/listinfo/hurricane-forecast_lists.hcs.net