Tropical Storm Matthew etc. 9/24/2010 4:30am

Colleagues, The only storm that matters at this point is Matthew. Lisa is in the far eastern Atlantic and a threat to nothing, and there is a area of interest in Caribbean, but not doing much, but Matthew may be a player.

FORECAST: Tropical Storm Matthew will make landfall in in Central America as a Tropical Storm with winds approaching 60 mph. Matthew will skirt the coast and get into the Yucatan Peninsula as a Tropical Storm / Tropical Depression early next week. Then, that is where questions begin.

DISCUSSION: Matthew is on the south side, and being steered by a subtropical ridge for the next 2 days. Then... we have conflicting forces for control. A developing low in the Central America would steer it to the SW. Yet, there is a tough that is centered near the east USA coast that extends down into Texas and beyond. It is weak this far south, but if the developing low in Central America is delayed, then the trough will exert the dominating influence. This should be clear Sat or Sun. It will determine whether Matthew dies in Mexico or Central America or gets into the Gulf and heads to be our first landfall this season. If it gets into the Gulf, it will become a hurricane. I would have waited a day or so, except today is Friday and I wanted to give you a heads up that what is now a very slow distant storm could become significant in the following weekend. But things will be a lot clearer by Sunday or before.

NEXT FORECAST: Saturday or Sunday

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