Colleagues, As forecast but just a bit faster FORECAST: Tropical Depression 16 is just leaving Cuba and headed for the middle Keys. By the time you read this it will be moving forward at 15 mph with minimal Tropical Storm winds, making it Tropical Storm Nicole. By late morning or early afternoon it will hit the Middle and Upper Keys, and by mid to later in the afternoon, Homestead and Miami and points north before emerging (around Jupiter) a bit weaker into the Atlantic where it will hit the Carolinas (mainly North) tomorrow also a Tropical Storm but becoming a midlatitude low. Not much different than a robust Summer rainstorm(s). Once inland, will complete its transition to a midlatitude system and quickly weaken as a Tropical Storm, becoming part of a frontal system on the East Coast.
DISCUSSION: Once this system got better organized, it took off a bit sooner and faster than I had orignially anticipated, but the path is right on. The experience should not be much more than the strong summer rains this area is accustomed to. It will be a minimal Tropical Storm. It will be out of South Florida soon. Nicole will be picking up forward speed continually. There will be gusty weather along the coast and some heavy rains.
NEXT FORECAST: Thursday morning as Nicole approaches the Carolinas
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