Colleagues: This is to let you know that I am still here and getting up early to check the weather. Also, that I will be adding the next Blog on http://www.hurricanehunt.com by the weekend. It presents the case FOR Global Warming. The following Blog will be the case AGAINST, and the one after that, will be my personal analysis. Know that even though I do not try and fill your inbox with messages, I am silently watching the weather.
FORECAST: A tropical depression with winds of 35 mph is located north of Puerto Rico and East of the Bahamas. It will strengthen to a weak tropical storm (OTTO) in the next 24 hours and turn to the NE, avoiding any land or being even close to land. It will by the weekend transition to a mid latitude low along a frontal boundary.
DISCUSSION: A series of strong frontal systems will push Otto off to the NE and there is no chance for it to even get close to the USA. Further more, it is now unlikely the Florida will be hit by a hurricane this year. I would put the chances at 35% and loosing a percent a day for a US landfall, and 25% and loosing a percent a day for a Florida landfall. You can pretty much omit any chance that a storm coming off of Africa will impact us; it will have to come from the Caribbean Sea, or in that area. If a storm gets into the Gulf of Mexico and gets in front of a Front, that is the most likely scenario for any Florida landfall.
NEXT FORECAST: Tomorrow if there is any news.
DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states at no cost to those who receive it.
NEW BLOG AND DONATIONS:
I have set up a website and blog which may be reached at URL http://www.hurricanehunt.com In this website you can find the forecast, as well as a blog of expanded interests of mine dealing with weather and climate and hurricanes, and an opportunity for you to comment as well. There is also an opportunity for you to contribute to defraying the increasing costs of maintaining this service, if and only if you want to. This must always be a not for profit public service and free as long as I have anything to do with it. But I have had offers of help in the past and it is increasingly difficult for me to underwrite all the cost, even with the generous and gracious support form Hayes Computer Systems.
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Peter S. Ray
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