Colleagues, FORECAST: A developing storm just off the coast of Nicaragua is almost a Tropical Storm and likely to become one soon and move into Honduras, the Belize and Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula. Initially, the motion is NW at about 10 mph, but there is a strong likelihood that it recurve into the southern Gulf. If that happens, in a few days, PAULA will strengthen.
DISCUSSION: This is almost certain. What is not as certain is the path. I think a strengthening Low in the Midwest will pull this to the east toward the Florida straights. It should be clearer in a couple of days, once it gets better organized and the southern extent of the trough is better defined. I do not see this impacting the upper Gulf Coast.
NEXT FORECAST: Tuesday morning.
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Peter S. Ray
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