Soon to be Tropical Storm PAULA 10/11/2010 3:00pm

Colleagues, FORECAST: A developing storm just off the coast of Nicaragua is almost a Tropical Storm and likely to become one soon and move into Honduras, the Belize and Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula. Initially, the motion is NW at about 10 mph, but there is a strong likelihood that it recurve into the southern Gulf. If that happens, in a few days, PAULA will strengthen.

DISCUSSION: This is almost certain. What is not as certain is the path. I think a strengthening Low in the Midwest will pull this to the east toward the Florida straights. It should be clearer in a couple of days, once it gets better organized and the southern extent of the trough is better defined. I do not see this impacting the upper Gulf Coast.

NEXT FORECAST: Tuesday morning.

DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states at no cost to those who receive it.


I have set up a website and blog which may be reached at URL In this website you can find the forecast, as well as a blog of expanded interests of mine dealing with weather and climate and hurricanes, and an opportunity for you to comment as well. There is also an opportunity for you to contribute to defraying the increasing costs of maintaining this service, if and only if you want to. This must always be a not for profit public service and free as long as I have anything to do with it. But I have had offers of help in the past and it is increasingly difficult for me to underwrite all the cost, even with the generous and gracious support form Hayes Computer Systems.


Please do NOT send subscription messages to

To subscribe or unsubscribe to the hurricane forecast list send an email to with "subscribe" or "unsubscribe" as the subject. You can manage your subscription at: If someone wishes to contact me, they can send an email to

Peter S. Ray

_______________________________________________ hurricane-forecast mailing list