Colleagues, FORECAST: HURRICANE PAULA position has not changed much since this morning, but aircraft reconnoissance found the hurricane to be a week Category 2 instead of Category 1. The change in winds speed is only about 15 mph, but this now makes it much more likely that the hurricane could move through the Florida Straight, bringing rain and at least significant squalls to the Florida keys. and South Florida. This is by no means certain, and NOAA has not recognized this in their forecast, but there is a better than 50% chance that the storm will continue to move eastward if it can maintain approximately 100 mph winds through at least Friday or Saturday when It would normally weaken. I f it can to that, it could maintain itself through the Florida straights. If PAULA weakens by Friday, then it will turn south over western Cuba.

DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states at no cost to those who receive it.


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Peter S. Ray

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