HURRICANE PAULA 10/14/2010 6am

Colleagues, FORECAST: HURRICANE PAULA is a minimal minimal Hurricane on the western tip of Cuba. During the day, PAULA will spend transitioning from hurricane through Tropical Storm to "not much" as it moves basically eastward through the western half of Cuba.

DISCUSSION: The weakening of Paula gives weight to the steering of the low-level ridge building to the west of Paula, as we discussed yesterday. However the upper levels of the remains of Paula are shearing off under the influence of the upper level trough, and producing some light to moderate rain over the Keys and South Florida today and tomorrow. After tomorrow there will be nothing much left; however if some week circulation continues and PAULA should make it into the warm waters again south of Cuba, there is the possibility of it getting new life next week.

NEST FORECAST: Friday morning

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