Colleagues, FORECAST: A tropical depression is located midway between Jamaica and the border between Honduras and Nicaragua. It isn't moving much but will pick up speed later today and move NW and intensify becoming Tropical Storm RICHARD and then by the weekend, a Hurricane. It is likely to be the first hurricane to hit the USA this season, somewhere on the Gulf Coast, probably the near the end of the month. The path will be clearer this weekend after RICHARD (to be) starts to move. Winds are currently only 35 mph, but conditions for intensification are good.
DISCUSSION: NOAA's projected path takes the storm over the Yucatan, and essentially dying. I suspect a more northerly course and some weakening but closer to the Yucatan Channel, less weakening and a path more nearly in the central to eastern Gulf. I believe in the next few days, with some critical additional information, we can be more precise.
NEXT FORECAST: Friday Morning
DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states at no cost to those who receive it.
NEW BLOG AND DONATIONS:
I have set up a website and blog which may be reached at URL http://www.hurricanehunt.com In this website you can find the forecast, as well as a blog of expanded interests of mine dealing with weather and climate and hurricanes, and an opportunity for you to comment as well. There is also an opportunity for you to contribute to defraying the increasing costs of maintaining this service, if and only if you want to. This must always be a not for profit public service and free as long as I have anything to do with it. But I have had offers of help in the past and it is increasingly difficult for me to underwrite all the cost, even with the generous and gracious support form Hayes Computer Systems.
Please do NOT send subscription messages to firstname.lastname@example.org.
To subscribe or unsubscribe to the hurricane forecast list send an email to email@example.com with "subscribe" or "unsubscribe" as the subject. You can manage your subscription at: http://lists.hcs.net/mailman/listinfo/hurricane-forecast_lists.hcs.net If someone wishes to contact me, they can send an email to firstname.lastname@example.org.
Peter S. Ray
_______________________________________________ hurricane-forecast mailing list email@example.com http://lists.hcs.net/mailman/listinfo/hurricane-forecast_lists.hcs.net