Colleagues, FORECAST: Significant changes in the last 24 hours, all which reduce the hurricane thereat to the eastern Gulf. Tropical Storm RICHARD is moving very slowly to the west and will, early next week, cross the heart of the Yucatan as a strong Tropical Storm. Of course RICHARD will weaken during its transit across the Yucatan. RICHARD will not emerge in the Gulf until near the middle of next week. Over the weekend, RICHARD will gain strength before making landfall on the Yucatan coast.
DISCUSSION: All the weak forces that appeared to be steering the movement and acceleration RICHARD toward the Yucatan Channel failed to materialize. RICHARD missed the ride on the trough and now is going to be under the influence of a strengthening subtropical ridge. This ridge is going to be stronger that early forecast and will push the track further south and west. That will change everything. Just how strong this ridge develops over the next few days will mean everything to the track and life of RICHARD. Now, missing the USA is back on the table, and while a Texas landfall seemed unlikely yesterday, it is now a possibility. While a Florida landfall can not be entirely dismissed, it would require a ridge that doesn't strengthen as much as I think it will, and a real healthy trough next week. A strong trough is approaching, but it is not yet clear whether it will be strong enough to deal with a strong ridge that wants to block the way. At this point, the defensive line appears stronger than the offensive line which wants to move it out of the way and lead the way. (Sorry, but it is football season.)
NEXT FORECAST: Saturday Morning
DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states at no cost to those who receive it.
NEW BLOG AND DONATIONS:
I have set up a website and blog which may be reached at URL http://www.hurricanehunt.com In this website you can find the forecast, as well as a blog of expanded interests of mine dealing with weather and climate and hurricanes, and an opportunity for you to comment as well. There is also an opportunity for you to contribute to defraying the increasing costs of maintaining this service, if and only if you want to. This must always be a not for profit public service and free as long as I have anything to do with it. But I have had offers of help in the past and it is increasingly difficult for me to underwrite all the cost, even with the generous and gracious support form Hayes Computer Systems.
Please do NOT send subscription messages to email@example.com.
To subscribe or unsubscribe to the hurricane forecast list send an email to firstname.lastname@example.org with "subscribe" or "unsubscribe" as the subject. You can manage your subscription at: http://lists.hcs.net/mailman/listinfo/hurricane-forecast_lists.hcs.net If someone wishes to contact me, they can send an email to email@example.com.
Peter S. Ray
_______________________________________________ hurricane-forecast mailing list firstname.lastname@example.org http://lists.hcs.net/mailman/listinfo/hurricane-forecast_lists.hcs.net