Tropical Storm RICHARD 10/23/2010 5:00 am

Colleagues, FORECAST: Tropical Storm RICHARD will hug the Honduran coast as it moves westward at 8 mph with winds of 45 mph. Richard will either stay inland and dissipate in southern Mexico or, more likely, cross the base of the Yucatan Peninsula and emerge in the middle of next week as as week Tropical Depression into the Southern Gulf.

DISCUSSION: Dry air intrusion, significant vertical wind shear, and proximity to land have kept RICHARD from intensifying. That is about as negative environment as one can get. (Sorta like having to play Oklahoma at Oklahoma, anthropomorphically speaking.) With slightly improving conditions, RICHARD may get an extension of life, but there is no way for RICHARD to avoid substantial interaction over land, and if it does emerge in the Southern Gulf, the waters there are a bit cooler every day. It will be early in the week, before it is possible to postulate what will happen when and if RICHARD emerges into the Gulf. Florida will NOT be hit by a hurricane RICHARD. That is off the table.

NEXT FORECAST: Sunday morning

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Peter S. Ray

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