Colleagues, The forecast remains unchanged. FORECAST: Tropical Storm RICHARD has gained strength with winds near hurricane strength and probably will become (barely) a hurricane before making landfall in Belize, south of the Yucatan, very early Monday morning.. Movement is WNW at 10 mph. RICHARD will all but dissipate crossing the root of the Yucatan Peninsula and emerge in the Bay of Campeche late Tuesday. Florida and the Central Gulf Coast are out of it, and it is possible that this (once) hurricane will also not make landfall in the USA, preserving this record season.
DISCUSSION: The path trough Tuesday and entering the Bay of Campeche is solid. There after it is a bit less clear for the western Gulf. No prospect for a major hurricane and if the track remains westerly, then no USA landfall. The waters are still warm there, but there is little dynamical support for much restrengthening. Yet is is a bit too early to write the obituary becuase in this regime of weak forcing, it doesn't take much to keep it in warm waters and wait a few days for more favorable conditions. Right now, it looks like a Mexico or possibly a Southern Texas landfall, IF RICHARD can hang together. But there are still low provability scenarios that might take a day or so to resolve. The Eastern Gulf is safe.
NEXT FORECAST: Monday morning.
DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states at no cost to those who receive it.
NEW BLOG AND DONATIONS:
I have set up a website and blog which may be reached at URL http://www.hurricanehunt.com In this website you can find the forecast, as well as a blog of expanded interests of mine dealing with weather and climate and hurricanes, and an opportunity for you to comment as well. There is also an opportunity for you to contribute to defraying the increasing costs of maintaining this service, if and only if you want to. This must always be a not for profit public service and free as long as I have anything to do with it. But I have had offers of help in the past and it is increasingly difficult for me to underwrite all the cost, even with the generous and gracious support form Hayes Computer Systems.
Please do NOT send subscription messages to firstname.lastname@example.org.
To subscribe or unsubscribe to the hurricane forecast list send an email to email@example.com with "subscribe" or "unsubscribe" as the subject. You can manage your subscription at: http://lists.hcs.net/mailman/listinfo/hurricane-forecast_lists.hcs.net If someone wishes to contact me, they can send an email to firstname.lastname@example.org.
Peter S. Ray
_______________________________________________ hurricane-forecast mailing list email@example.com http://lists.hcs.net/mailman/listinfo/hurricane-forecast_lists.hcs.net