Colleagues, Essentially unchanged. FORECAST: Tropical Storm RICHARD is in the Yucatan with winds of 65 mph, but weakening as it move WNW at 11 mph. RICHARD will emerge into the Bay of Campeche as a Tropical Depression. There the path will turn NW, and NOT much if any strength and certainly not regaining hurricane strength. Most likely adverse conditions will cause a general decay with it becoming history by then end of the week. This will preserve the Seasons record of no USA landfalls of a Hurricane with 17 total hurricanes in the Atlantic.
DISCUSSION: RICHARD is weakening over land as is normal. There is dry air ahead in its path and strong shear and, while the waters in the Western Gulf are warm, they will not be sufficient to "refire" this storm. It is basically down-hill from here.
Elsewhere - there is a strong Squall Line of thunderstorms extending from Tennessee through Alabama. This system produced Tornadoes in Texas. While there is a watch in Alabama, the greater threat today is in Georgia extending from Atlanta to near the Florida border. Tornado's are difficult to predict, except in rare (spring time) cases because they are very local events where a funnel reaches the ground and where 90% of the funnels do not reach the ground. And there are different kinds of tornadoes as well. What is so devastating is many tornadoes have winds of a category 5 hurricanes and frequently much more. Tornadic winds can exceed 200 mph. Tornadoes are difficult to predict, but if you live in Georgia, just be on the alert from about 10am through the day.
Next Forecast: Tuesday Morning
DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states at no cost to those who receive it.
NEW BLOG AND DONATIONS:
I have set up a website and blog which may be reached at URL http://www.hurricanehunt.com In this website you can find the forecast, as well as a blog of expanded interests of mine dealing with weather and climate and hurricanes, and an opportunity for you to comment as well. There is also an opportunity for you to contribute to defraying the increasing costs of maintaining this service, if and only if you want to. This must always be a not for profit public service and free as long as I have anything to do with it. But I have had offers of help in the past and it is increasingly difficult for me to underwrite all the cost, even with the generous and gracious support form Hayes Computer Systems.
Please do NOT send subscription messages to firstname.lastname@example.org.
To subscribe or unsubscribe to the hurricane forecast list send an email to email@example.com with "subscribe" or "unsubscribe" as the subject. You can manage your subscription at: http://lists.hcs.net/mailman/listinfo/hurricane-forecast_lists.hcs.net If someone wishes to contact me, they can send an email to firstname.lastname@example.org.
Peter S. Ray
_______________________________________________ hurricane-forecast mailing list email@example.com http://lists.hcs.net/mailman/listinfo/hurricane-forecast_lists.hcs.net