Tropical Storm (past Hurricane) RICHARD 10/25/2010 5:30am

Colleagues, Essentially unchanged. FORECAST: Tropical Storm RICHARD is in the Yucatan with winds of 65 mph, but weakening as it move WNW at 11 mph. RICHARD will emerge into the Bay of Campeche as a Tropical Depression. There the path will turn NW, and NOT much if any strength and certainly not regaining hurricane strength. Most likely adverse conditions will cause a general decay with it becoming history by then end of the week. This will preserve the Seasons record of no USA landfalls of a Hurricane with 17 total hurricanes in the Atlantic.

DISCUSSION: RICHARD is weakening over land as is normal. There is dry air ahead in its path and strong shear and, while the waters in the Western Gulf are warm, they will not be sufficient to "refire" this storm. It is basically down-hill from here.

Elsewhere - there is a strong Squall Line of thunderstorms extending from Tennessee through Alabama. This system produced Tornadoes in Texas. While there is a watch in Alabama, the greater threat today is in Georgia extending from Atlanta to near the Florida border. Tornado's are difficult to predict, except in rare (spring time) cases because they are very local events where a funnel reaches the ground and where 90% of the funnels do not reach the ground. And there are different kinds of tornadoes as well. What is so devastating is many tornadoes have winds of a category 5 hurricanes and frequently much more. Tornadic winds can exceed 200 mph. Tornadoes are difficult to predict, but if you live in Georgia, just be on the alert from about 10am through the day.

Next Forecast: Tuesday Morning

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Peter S. Ray

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