Tropical Depression RICHARD 10/26/2010 5:30 am

Colleagues, Forecast remains unchanged. FORECAST: Tropical Depression RICHARD is now in the Bay of Campeche with winds of 30 mph. The movement is NW at 10 mph. RICHARD will be no longer in about a day. To speak of landfall is to invoke the location of the arrive of the departed spirit of RICHARD, probably on the Mexico-Texas border, the ghost of Richard. The record of no USA landfall remains intact and with only 5 weeks to go in the hurricane season. We are now clearly in the down-side of hurricane activity and anything from Africa very unlikely to get even half way across the Atlantic, Gulf waters are cooling every day, and the large scale dynamics is presently unfavorable. More activity is possible, but a major hurricane US landfall is unlikely and more and more so every day. But this is nature, and improbable does not mean impossible.

A severe line of thunderstorms extends through Illinois and is headed toward Indiana. These storms might form some tornadoes or other severe weather anywhere from the northern Indiana and Ohio to as fart south as northern Arkansas and Alabama, starting in the west and moving eastward during the day. The good news is that the convection is a narrow intense squall line, and the rain and threat at any location is germain for about 45 min.

These fronts will be moving increasingly southward over the next 6 months


NEXT FORECAST: The next time there is activity

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Peter S. Ray

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