HURRICANE TOMAS 10/31/2010 6:30am

Colleagues: FORECAST: Hurricane TOMAS Is east of the Lesser Antilles is headed WNW at 8 mph with winds of 100 mph making it a Category 2 hurricane. This path will continue until about Friday when a strengthened (Category 3) TOMAS will turn north and go over or near Haiti as a strong hurricane. Even losing some strength, it will then go over and through The Bahamas early next wee and up the east coast, not making landfall in the US.

DISCUSSION: The trough that I was looking at off California is moving eastward and will late in the week reach into the Caribbean and erode the currently building ridge. The variance is when exactly will it come and just how strong it will be. Present indications are that it will be strong enough to turn TOMAS to the North and that is will do so toward the end of next week. If it slows down or gets weaker than I think, then the effect would diminished and everything would shift to the west. I don't see any indication of that happening so far, but will be watching for any hint of that in the next few day. Right now, it looks bad for Haiti and the Dominican Republic and the Bahamas. And the US will again be spared a landfall.

NEXT FORECAST: Monday Morning

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Peter S. Ray

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