Tropical Storm TOMAS 11/1/2010 4:30am

Colleagues, FORECAST: Tropical Storm TOMAS is about 350 miles directly south of the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic moving west at 13 mph with winds of 50 mph. TOMAS will continue west and continue to weaken. Around Friday, TOMAS will recurve, turn north near Haiti, probably strengthen some, and continue on to the southern Bahamas, probably still as a Tropical Storm, possibly as a weak hurricane. TOMAS will not make landfall in the US. It is possible the turn may be a day later, and somewhat west of Haiti, but the rains will still come to Haiti.

DISCUSSION: TOMAS weakened because of increased wind shear. The trough is approaching the Gulf and moving toward TOMAS. Even though TOMAS may not make a direct hit on Haiti and will not be a major hurricane, Haiti will suffer. Haiti is suffering from a Cholera outbreak. The rains and flooding that will accompany any "near hit" will exacerbate the unhealthy living conditions that many Haitians live under, particularly since the earth quake. Haiti has in a way been fortunate to have dodged storms so far this season, but the lack of sufficient improvement in living conditions during this time will likely herald a substantial increase in Cholera and unnecessary deaths. Let's pray that this ugly forecast is wrong.

Elsewhere, there is no severe or unusual weather anticipate anywhere in the US today.

NEXT FORECAST: Tuesday Morning

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