Tropical Storm TOMAS 11/4/2010 4:30am

Colleagues, Forecast remains unchanged. FORECAST: Tropical Storm TOMAS is moving WNW at 5 mph and with winds not exceeding 40 mph (barely a tropical storm). But is set to strengthen in the next day and turn to the north tomorrow. Landfall is Friday as either a Tropical Storm or weak Category 1 Hurricane.

DISCUSSION: The National Hurricane Center (NHC) track is moved to the west a bit, and more in line with my forecast. The deep trough and the interaction with the ridge is beginning and everything is unfolding as expected. Small differences could result in slight shifts in location. Landfall will be western Haiti or even just to the west of Haitai. But that difference is academic. It is the wind and rain that will stress Haiti. Haiti will (more than) tested. Only about 3 weeks left in November. And no US landfalls in sight. This makes it a record year.

No remarkable weather in the US except rain in the Southeast and up the eastern seaboard.

NEXT FORECAST: Thursday morning

Peter Ray

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