HURRICANE TOMAS 11/5/2010 4:30am

Colleagues, Essentially the same forecast for the last several days FORECAST: HURRICANE TOMAS has winds of 80 mph and is moving NE at 9mph. HURRICANE TOMAS will nick the southern "arm" of Haiti, early this morning and then the northern "arm" of Haiti this afternoon on it way to the Turk Islands and the Southern Bahamas tomorrow. TOMAS has about one more day or so of health and then will start to decline as it moves into the Atlantic. The good news is that TOMAS will miss the heart of Haiti.

DISCUSSION: TOMAS is rounding the western edge of the ridge and moving NE and will be picked up by passing trough as forecast. TOMAS will be entering a region of very high winds aloft and will be largely ripped apart and left with a weak low level circulation in a couple of days. The US will NOT be hit, or even feel TOMAS. The bad news is that in the mountains of Haiti there will be rains in excess of 10 inches. Ship sails were made of canvas and all the tents in Haiti are made of canvas and the similarity does not end there. Flooding will acerbate the spread of Cholera and present an additional challenge to a resilient people who are inadequately served. But since the storm will pass 125 miles to the west of center of Haiti and the strength will be only a category 1 hurricane, they will get a break. Flooding will not be as bad as it could have been and the winds over all of Haiti, except the tips of the two peninsulas, will be in the middle of the Tropical Storm range, instead of hurricane force.

Elsewhere in the USA, no severe weather, just too dry in Florida and cold and in some places freezing weather (at night) in the Southeast and the Great Plains.

NEXT FORECAST: Saturday Morning

Peter Ray

DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states at no cost to those who receive it.


I have set up a website and blog which may be reached at URL In this website you can find the forecast, as well as a blog of expanded interests of mine dealing with weather and climate and hurricanes, and an opportunity for you to comment as well. There is also an opportunity for you to contribute to defraying the increasing costs of maintaining this service, if and only if you want to. This must always be a not for profit public service and free as long as I have anything to do with it. But I have had offers of help in the past and it is increasingly difficult for me to underwrite all the cost, even with the generous and gracious support form Hayes Computer Systems.


Please do NOT send subscription messages to

To subscribe or unsubscribe to the hurricane forecast list send an email to with "subscribe" or "unsubscribe" as the subject. You can manage your subscription at: If someone wishes to contact me, they can send an email to

Peter S. Ray

_______________________________________________ hurricane-forecast mailing list