HURRICANE TOMAS 11/5/2010 4:30am

Colleagues, Essentially the same forecast for the last several days FORECAST: HURRICANE TOMAS has winds of 80 mph and is moving NE at 9mph. HURRICANE TOMAS will nick the southern "arm" of Haiti, early this morning and then the northern "arm" of Haiti this afternoon on it way to the Turk Islands and the Southern Bahamas tomorrow. TOMAS has about one more day or so of health and then will start to decline as it moves into the Atlantic. The good news is that TOMAS will miss the heart of Haiti.

DISCUSSION: TOMAS is rounding the western edge of the ridge and moving NE and will be picked up by passing trough as forecast. TOMAS will be entering a region of very high winds aloft and will be largely ripped apart and left with a weak low level circulation in a couple of days. The US will NOT be hit, or even feel TOMAS. The bad news is that in the mountains of Haiti there will be rains in excess of 10 inches. Ship sails were made of canvas and all the tents in Haiti are made of canvas and the similarity does not end there. Flooding will acerbate the spread of Cholera and present an additional challenge to a resilient people who are inadequately served. But since the storm will pass 125 miles to the west of center of Haiti and the strength will be only a category 1 hurricane, they will get a break. Flooding will not be as bad as it could have been and the winds over all of Haiti, except the tips of the two peninsulas, will be in the middle of the Tropical Storm range, instead of hurricane force.

Elsewhere in the USA, no severe weather, just too dry in Florida and cold and in some places freezing weather (at night) in the Southeast and the Great Plains.

NEXT FORECAST: Saturday Morning

Peter Ray

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