Colleagues, This is the wrap-up of the 2010 unusual hurricane season. None of the pre-season forecasts were any good at all, if they attempted any specificity. Next year we are going to have our own little forecast contest and see who wins :)
2010 was an extremely active season with 21 Tropical Depressions, 19 named storms (Tropical Storms or greater), 12 Hurricanes and 5 Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or greater). Yet NO Hurricanes hit the USA. The long term average is 11 named storms, 6 hurricane, and 2 major hurricanes. I do not know or can find in the historical record where there have been so many storms and none have hit the USA. Although hurricanes do some good, along with a lot of bad, we can be thankful that we did not suffer from a devastating hurricane season. Among other things, the lack of storms certainly hastened the plugging of of the oil well.
I would like to encourage those who are interested to visit my blog and website. It is at http://www.hurricanehunt.com There I will occasional post mostly weather related comments about such topics as Global Warming etc. I PROMISE I will post within a week the case FOR Global Warming and before Christmas, the case AGAINST Global Warming and then my Analysis of what the bottom line is.
I also want to express my appreciation of the many friends I have made during the past year through this network. In particular a very special man and my "cousin" name Pete Ray from Tampa. I look forward to visiting him and other friends in the Tampa area soon and to learn about trees among other things from him.
And lastly, but importantly, I must express my deep appreciation and gratitude for those who helped contribute financially to underwriting the costs of providing these forecasts. There are equipment, licenses, recurring, and data costs that unfortunately I am no longer able to underwrite and provide free forecasts. Your contributions have literally made it possible. (I sound a lot like NPR?) Hayes Computing did a spotless job and their service also needs to be recognized.
I wish each and everyone a wonderful, family filled Holiday Season, and even though Thanksgiving officially happens only once a year, we all have much to be thankful for. Blessing to everyone.
The NW of USA promises to be a bit wetter than normal this coming season, and most of the rest of the USA should be about normal to a little bit warmer. Within that broad guidance there will be some marked variability, since this is only an average, but applies to Florida and most of the US.
Bless you all and thank you for all your support in many ways. May 2011 be the best year ever for all.
DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states at no cost to those who receive it.
NEW BLOG AND DONATIONS:
I have set up a website and blog which may be reached at URL http://www.hurricanehunt.com In this website you can find the forecast, as well as a blog of expanded interests of mine dealing with weather and climate and hurricanes, and an opportunity for you to comment as well. There is also an opportunity for you to contribute to defraying the increasing costs of maintaining this service, if and only if you want to. This must always be a not for profit public service and free as long as I have anything to do with it. But I have had offers of help in the past and it is increasingly difficult for me to underwrite all the cost, even with the generous and gracious support form Hayes Computer Systems.
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Peter S. Ray
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