Tropical wave (Don) 7/26/2011 4am (Boulder)

Colleagues, FORECAST: A tropical wave off the western tip of Cuba looks like it will become a Tropical Storm in a day or so and make landfall in the western Gulf this weekend. Texas is at present the most probably location, followed by northern Mexico. Current winds are only 30 mph but will increase.

DISCUSSION: This soon-to-be depression and I believe Tropical Storm will be named DON. The Gulf waters are toasty and will support development. There is presently only week shear so that will not inhibit intensification. Hurricane status is unlikely but if it happens it will be weak and just before landfall.

NEXT FORECAST: Tomorrow (Thursday) if system still looks possible. A special greetings to a distant relative, Peter Ray, in Tampa. Great choice in name, but a lot for me to live up to.

DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states at no cost to those who receive it.

NEW BLOG AND DONATIONS:

I have set up a website and blog which may be reached at URL http://www.hurricanehunt.com In this website you can find the forecast, as well as a blog of expanded interests of mine dealing with weather and climate and hurricanes, and an opportunity for you to comment as well. There is also an opportunity for you to contribute to defraying the increasing costs of maintaining this service, if and only if you want to. This must always be a not for profit public service and free as long as I have anything to do with it. But I have had offers of help in the past and it is increasingly difficult for me to underwrite all the cost, even with the generous and gracious support form Hayes Computer Systems.

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Peter S. Ray

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