Tropical wave (Don) 7/26/2011 4am (Boulder)

Colleagues, FORECAST: A tropical wave off the western tip of Cuba looks like it will become a Tropical Storm in a day or so and make landfall in the western Gulf this weekend. Texas is at present the most probably location, followed by northern Mexico. Current winds are only 30 mph but will increase.

DISCUSSION: This soon-to-be depression and I believe Tropical Storm will be named DON. The Gulf waters are toasty and will support development. There is presently only week shear so that will not inhibit intensification. Hurricane status is unlikely but if it happens it will be weak and just before landfall.

NEXT FORECAST: Tomorrow (Thursday) if system still looks possible. A special greetings to a distant relative, Peter Ray, in Tampa. Great choice in name, but a lot for me to live up to.

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Peter S. Ray

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