Tropical Storm Don 7/28/2011 4am CDT

Colleagues, The forecast remains unchanged from yesterday. FORECAST: Tropical Storm Don is just north of the Yucatan Peninsula with winds of 40 mph moving to the WNW at 10 mph. Early Saturday morning it should hit the south Texas coast as a Tropical Storm.

DISCUSSION: Don is small and can easily intensify or weaken to relative small changes in the environment. Don is south of a ridge which is pushing the storm generally westward. Wind shear is generally favorable but somewhat less so in the area near the storm. All this means there might be some unexpected fluctuation in intensity in the next few days, as Don moves over the Gulf toward the Southern Texas. By tomorrow, I will be able to narrow the landfall to withing a 50 mile area or better.

NEXT FORECAST: Tomorrow morning

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Peter S. Ray

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