Colleagues, The forecast remains unchanged from yesterday. FORECAST: Tropical Storm Don is just north of the Yucatan Peninsula with winds of 40 mph moving to the WNW at 10 mph. Early Saturday morning it should hit the south Texas coast as a Tropical Storm.
DISCUSSION: Don is small and can easily intensify or weaken to relative small changes in the environment. Don is south of a ridge which is pushing the storm generally westward. Wind shear is generally favorable but somewhat less so in the area near the storm. All this means there might be some unexpected fluctuation in intensity in the next few days, as Don moves over the Gulf toward the Southern Texas. By tomorrow, I will be able to narrow the landfall to withing a 50 mile area or better.
NEXT FORECAST: Tomorrow morning
DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states at no cost to those who receive it.
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Peter S. Ray
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