Tropical Storm Emily 8/3/2011 5 am

Colleagues, So far, the previous forecasts are holding. So not much new. FORECAST: Tropical Storm Emily has winds of 50 mph and moving WNW at 13 mph. rather directly towards Haiti which will be hit late tonight. Emily will then move up through the Bahamas passing maybe 75 - 100 miles off Florida's east coast this weekend. The lower peninsula should get some showers and some gusts from this.

DISCUSSION: Nothing has changed much. Emily will be gradually moving toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge and under the influence of a weak trough. This will cause an slow turn to the right. After passing over Haiti, Emily will be weaker, but it looks like the Storm will be regaining some strength as it moves up East of Florida's coast. Thursday evening or Friday morning after Emily is past Haiti, the forecast for Florida should be solid. But from all the data I see, the forecast for the last few days is continuing to hold. I don't see a landfall for Emily in the US. Heavy surf, and rip tides, yes, all the way up past North Carolina.

NEXT FORECAST: Tomorrow (Thursday) morning.

Peter Ray

DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states at no cost to those who receive it.

NEW BLOG AND DONATIONS:

I have set up a website and blog which may be reached at URL http://www.hurricanehunt.com In this website you can find the forecast, as well as a blog of expanded interests of mine dealing with weather and climate and hurricanes, and an opportunity for you to comment as well. There is also an opportunity for you to contribute to defraying the increasing costs of maintaining this service, if and only if you want to. This must always be a not for profit public service and free as long as I have anything to do with it. But I have had offers of help in the past and it is increasingly difficult for me to underwrite all the cost, even with the generous and gracious support form Hayes Computer Systems.

SUBSCRIPTIONS:

Please do NOT send subscription messages to hurricane-forecasts@lists.hcs.net.

To subscribe or unsubscribe to the hurricane forecast list send an email to hurricane-forecast-request@lists.hcs.net with "subscribe" or "unsubscribe" as the subject. You can manage your subscription at: http://lists.hcs.net/mailman/listinfo/hurricane-forecast_lists.hcs.net If someone wishes to contact me, they can send an email to hurricanehunter007@gmail.com.

Peter S. Ray

_______________________________________________ hurricane-forecast mailing list hurricane-forecast@lists.hcs.net http://lists.hcs.net/mailman/listinfo/hurricane-forecast_lists.hcs.net