Colleagues, So far, the previous forecasts are holding. So not much new. FORECAST: Tropical Storm Emily has winds of 50 mph and moving WNW at 13 mph. rather directly towards Haiti which will be hit late tonight. Emily will then move up through the Bahamas passing maybe 75 - 100 miles off Florida's east coast this weekend. The lower peninsula should get some showers and some gusts from this.
DISCUSSION: Nothing has changed much. Emily will be gradually moving toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge and under the influence of a weak trough. This will cause an slow turn to the right. After passing over Haiti, Emily will be weaker, but it looks like the Storm will be regaining some strength as it moves up East of Florida's coast. Thursday evening or Friday morning after Emily is past Haiti, the forecast for Florida should be solid. But from all the data I see, the forecast for the last few days is continuing to hold. I don't see a landfall for Emily in the US. Heavy surf, and rip tides, yes, all the way up past North Carolina.
NEXT FORECAST: Tomorrow (Thursday) morning.
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Peter S. Ray
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