Tropical Storm Emily 8/4/2011 4:30 am

Colleagues, So far, the previous forecasts are holding, but with a hint of uncertainty. FORECAST: Tropical Storm Emily maintains winds of 50 mph and moving WNW at 6 mph. Although weakening some going over Haiti, it will not be as much as earlier thought since Emily reformed 60 miles to the west of its previous position. Up the east coast through North Carolina one can expect high surf, rip tides, and some rain and local gusts.

DISCUSSION: Emily has slowed down and is "regrouping", reforming a bit to the west and avoiding some of the high terrain of Haiti. Thus, it will pass over the eastern tip of Cuba tonight and should move up the western Bahamas. At this point, it looks like it will still be about 50 off the Florida's east coast but for the last 2 days, everythings seems to be slowly shifting westward, about 25 miles so far. The BIG issues is the curving North, which so far Emily has resisted. If these forecasts are to come to fruition, that turn must happen today. As I look as all the data and examine the model forecasts and my own, I believe it will happen, but it is a closer call than it appeared before. So far, all indications are that it will turn north, but it is in very mixed environment with many factors and the net result has been, and will be like a tug-of-war. Today and tomorrow will be the whole story, forecast wise. I will be watching this closely today.

NEXT FORECAST: Tomorrow (Friday) morning. As today is important in the path, if I detect a shift west, I will put out an advisory tonight.

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Peter S. Ray

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