Colleagues, It happened. The tug of war is for now over and so is Emily. FORECAST: Ex-Tropical Storm Emily maintains winds of 35 mph and moving NW at 16 mph. The weakening over Haiti was just too much to bounce back from. It crossed a threshold. It now is embedded in the trough and does NOT pose a threat to FLORIDA or the USA. However, in a few days, it MIGHT recover some, but off the coast of Florida. Most of the rain is off to the east, so that would only benefit the Bahamas. I expect the winds to pick up some, but there is no threat of a hurricane to hit the Peninsula of Florida or the east coast.
DISCUSSION: Emily has slowed down and was "regrouping", reforming a bit to the west and avoiding some of the high terrain of Haiti. But it just couldn't quite do it. So for now and perhaps for several days at least, it is part of a low pressure trough. It it sticks with the trough it will ride up east of the Florida Coast. Right now, Emily, anthropomorphically speaking, is on hospice.
I said today would be the day that was crucial to the rest of Emily.
I will continue to watch this storm through the night and give an update tomorrow morning.
NEXT FORECAST: Tomorrow (Friday) morning.
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Peter S. Ray
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