Colleagues: Just an update FORECAST: The remnants of Emily are producing and will continue to produce squall-like conditions over eastern Cuba and moving into the Bahamas. In a day or so, the low is likely to redevelop in to a weak-to-moderate Tropical storm moving north off the coast of Florida and then to the NE. I do not see a dangerous situation for any part of Florida at this time beyond the obvious rip tides etc. North of Florida it seem will not be affected much because of the anticipated turn to the NE.
DISCUSSION: Although there is no low level circulation at present, the low is moving north, off Cuba and Hispaniola into warm waters and more favorable wind shear conditions. Current conditions are moderately hostile, inhibiting redevelopment. But it is certain to move into a more favorable conditions, hence strengthing. How much - I think enough to make it into a Tropical Storm. It will be moving fundamentally northward and in a few days to the NE. So Florida will almost certainly not be in the picture in a with that strong of winds. It is possible that the east coast will get some rain and gusts for sure, but NO hurricane.
NEXT FORECAST: Saturday morning
DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states at no cost to those who receive it.
NEW BLOG AND DONATIONS:
I have set up a website and blog which may be reached at URL http://www.hurricanehunt.com In this website you can find the forecast, as well as a blog of expanded interests of mine dealing with weather and climate and hurricanes, and an opportunity for you to comment as well. There is also an opportunity for you to contribute to defraying the increasing costs of maintaining this service, if and only if you want to. This must always be a not for profit public service and free as long as I have anything to do with it. But I have had offers of help in the past and it is increasingly difficult for me to underwrite all the cost, even with the generous and gracious support form Hayes Computer Systems.
Please do NOT send subscription messages to email@example.com.
To subscribe or unsubscribe to the hurricane forecast list send an email to firstname.lastname@example.org with "subscribe" or "unsubscribe" as the subject. You can manage your subscription at: http://lists.hcs.net/mailman/listinfo/hurricane-forecast_lists.hcs.net If someone wishes to contact me, they can send an email to email@example.com.
Peter S. Ray
_______________________________________________ hurricane-forecast mailing list firstname.lastname@example.org http://lists.hcs.net/mailman/listinfo/hurricane-forecast_lists.hcs.net