Ex-Emily 8/5/2011 5:00pm

Colleagues: Just an update FORECAST: The remnants of Emily are producing and will continue to produce squall-like conditions over eastern Cuba and moving into the Bahamas. In a day or so, the low is likely to redevelop in to a weak-to-moderate Tropical storm moving north off the coast of Florida and then to the NE. I do not see a dangerous situation for any part of Florida at this time beyond the obvious rip tides etc. North of Florida it seem will not be affected much because of the anticipated turn to the NE.

DISCUSSION: Although there is no low level circulation at present, the low is moving north, off Cuba and Hispaniola into warm waters and more favorable wind shear conditions. Current conditions are moderately hostile, inhibiting redevelopment. But it is certain to move into a more favorable conditions, hence strengthing. How much - I think enough to make it into a Tropical Storm. It will be moving fundamentally northward and in a few days to the NE. So Florida will almost certainly not be in the picture in a with that strong of winds. It is possible that the east coast will get some rain and gusts for sure, but NO hurricane.

NEXT FORECAST: Saturday morning

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Peter S. Ray

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