FORECASTS

Colleagues, I am leaving today to go to Beijing, China at the request and guest of the Chinese Government to give lectures on Typhoon (hurricane) forecasting and how over the next decades forecasts in general can be improved with more sophisticated instrumentation, models and data assimilation methodologies. I will be there about a week. But part of my stipulation is that I would be provided internet access every afternoon their time, (early morning here) so that I might do my research and prepare and disseminate my forecast to you. They have agreed.

This time of year, hurricanes frequently develop in the eastern Atlantic, just west of the coast of Africa in the Cape Verde area. Presently, this is an area of increasingly disturbed weather and it is likely in the next few days and weeks to see significant development there. I am confident that nothing will get to the US from there until I return in just of over a week, but it is likely something will get started during that time. This is the prime area for development at this time, although storm development (with a much shorter fuse) is still quite possible in the Caribbean area. Nothing is happening at this moment, but we now are close to "prime time" so it is likely something will develop in the next week or so.

I will do my best as always to keep everyone aware and informed.

Thanks you

Peter Ray

DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states at no cost to those who receive it.

NEW BLOG AND DONATIONS:

I have set up a website and blog which may be reached at URL http://www.hurricanehunt.com In this website you can find the forecast, as well as a blog of expanded interests of mine dealing with weather and climate and hurricanes, and an opportunity for you to comment as well. There is also an opportunity for you to contribute to defraying the increasing costs of maintaining this service, if and only if you want to. This must always be a not for profit public service and free as long as I have anything to do with it. But I have had offers of help in the past and it is increasingly difficult for me to underwrite all the cost, even with the generous and gracious support form Hayes Computer Systems.

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Peter S. Ray

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