Colleagues, This one will make it. And I made it back from China and very gracious people who seemed to appreciate my talks and discussions with their leadership on how to further advance their weather prediction. They are certainly well poised to do so with an envious observational network. Long flight (20 hours) home and got back very late and slept in this morning. Sorry.
FORECAST: Tropical Storm Irene has winds of 50 mph headed westerly at 20 mph Irene is currently located in the northern Leeward Islands. Irene is headed toward Hispaniola, Peurto Rico and Haiti early this week. Then it will curve northward later in the week coming close to and possibly making landfall in South Florida. The east coast should keep the end of the week in mind. Certainly there will be high surf and locally heavy rainfall and certainly hurricane force gusts and probably category one winds.
DISCUSSION: Although presently disorganized, Irene is going to get her act together and intensify. All data and models agree that the ridge in the extreme western Atlantic will be weakening later in the week, and I agree. This will allow Irene to curve more northerly into the Florida Straights, and impact Florida. There is some uncertainty on just how close that will be and it maybe Wednesday before that is solid. Since the weakening does not presently exist, we are waiting to see how significant it will be and the degree of turning. Even a few degrees of difference will make a tremendous change in track, and that is the uncertainity. I think once Irene gets north of Cuba or Haiti, it is likely to become a Category One Hurricane again.
NEXT FORECAST: Monday morning 22nd.
DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states at no cost to those who receive it.
NEW BLOG AND DONATIONS:
I have set up a website and blog which may be reached at URL http://www.hurricanehunt.com In this website you can find the forecast, as well as a blog of expanded interests of mine dealing with weather and climate and hurricanes, and an opportunity for you to comment as well. There is also an opportunity for you to contribute to defraying the increasing costs of maintaining this service, if and only if you want to. This must always be a not for profit public service and free as long as I have anything to do with it. But I have had offers of help in the past and it is increasingly difficult for me to underwrite all the cost, even with the generous and gracious support form Hayes Computer Systems.
Please do NOT send subscription messages to email@example.com.
To subscribe or unsubscribe to the hurricane forecast list send an email to firstname.lastname@example.org with "subscribe" or "unsubscribe" as the subject. You can manage your subscription at: http://lists.hcs.net/mailman/listinfo/hurricane-forecast_lists.hcs.net If someone wishes to contact me, they can send an email to email@example.com.
Peter S. Ray
_______________________________________________ hurricane-forecast mailing list firstname.lastname@example.org http://lists.hcs.net/mailman/listinfo/hurricane-forecast_lists.hcs.net