HURRICANE IRENE 8/27/2011 6:am

Colleagues, Forecast remains unchanged. It has become a weaker threat in the last day, but still a heavy rain producer, Storm surge of about 4 feet up the coast and in special locations, twice that, rip currents, inland flooding, and still Tropical Storm force winds ( approximately 45-50 mph over a large area). Not nearly as horrible as might have been ( and in some media still hyped), but bad enough that boating interests must be careful and common sense (DO NOT GET INTO THE WATER) should make this not too bad. And of course, my favorite aphorism, "There is nothing more uncommon than common sense" FORECAST: HURRICANE IRENE is weakening Category 1 storm with winds of 90 mph moving NNE at 13 mph. Projected to make landfall at noon today on North Carolina's Outer Banks and noon tomorrow in New York. It should remain a weakening Category 1 hurricane as it move thorough New England until it gets to New Hampshire and Maine and become more like a Tropical storm or mid-latitude low.

DISCUSSION: The Hurricane is entraining dry air from the west (no fuel) and also increasing wind shear. These will continue to cause weakening and keep IRENE no more than a Category 1. However it is a very big Category one with a larger than average area of hurricane force winds (approximately 85 mph)

I will soon be writing a blog on on STORM SURGE. It is not what most people think it is, so I will explain it there as it is too long to go into here.

NEXT FORECAST: Sunday morning.

Peter Ray

DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states at no cost to those who receive it.


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Peter S. Ray

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