Colleagues, Forecast remains unchanged. FORECAST: HURRICANE IRENE is weakening Category 1 storm with of 75 mph. Actually, it really is a strong Tropical Storm now. It is locate off the New Jersey Coast poised to make land fall again. Forward movement is 18 mph at 20 degrees, and accelerating. It will continue on this track up through Western New Hampshire and Maine by tomorrow. New York by noon today, although New York is already feeling its presence.
DISCUSSION: The Hurricane is entraining dry air from the west (no fuel) and is slowly weakening. HOWEVER, on the east side, you have to combine, say 70 mph Tropical Storm winds with 18 mph of forward speed and you have a total wind of 88 mph, (hurricane strength) and on the left side of the storm, the total wind would be 52 mph. So where you are with respect to the storm does make a big difference. Also, the winds are MUCH stronger above the ground and if you are in a tall building, say 30 or more stories tall, the winds will be 20 % stronger. And then there are gusts, which are 20- 30 per cent higher and lower than the average wind speed, so there is A LOT of variability. With a 70 mph storm, you could get a 100 mph blast easily above the ground.
All that being said, the major impact of this storm will be flooding and loss of power due to to downed trees etc. It may take several weeks for some to get their power restored, so great and widespread is the damage. Flood waters will recede in days, but leaving varying degrees of mess. And there will be some wind damage, just not near as bad as if a major hurricane has struck. This will be enough of a challenge to get back to normal.
I will soon be writing a blog on http://www.hurricanehunt.com on STORM SURGE. It is not what most people think it is, so I will explain it there as it is too long to go into here.
NEXT FORECAST: Monday morning.
DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states at no cost to those who receive it.
NEW BLOG AND DONATIONS:
I have set up a website and blog which may be reached at URL http://www.hurricanehunt.com In this website you can find the forecast, as well as a blog of expanded interests of mine dealing with weather and climate and hurricanes, and an opportunity for you to comment as well. There is also an opportunity for you to contribute to defraying the increasing costs of maintaining this service, if and only if you want to. This must always be a not for profit public service and free as long as I have anything to do with it. But I have had offers of help in the past and it is increasingly difficult for me to underwrite all the cost, even with the generous and gracious support form Hayes Computer Systems.
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Peter S. Ray
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