IRENE and more 8/29/2011 5:30am

Colleagues, IRENE, while not as bad as feared, still was responsible for for at least 19 deaths, at least 4 million people without electricity and coastal and inland flooding that has disrupted many lives, businesses and communities. We can be thankful it was not worse as we remember those whose lives have been significantly disrupted and those who lost as much as if it were a Cat 5. FORECAST: IRENE is now part of a extra tropical low that is rapidly moving increasingly eastward and will pass the southern tip of Greenland tomorrow night. Winds will remain at Tropical Storm Strength for some time and eventually cause some bad weather in Iceland by the end of the week.

DISCUSSION: There are 2 storms or potential storms in the Atlantic. Tropical Storm Jose is in the mid Atlantic North of Bermuda, headed NE and dying. No threat to anything.

Tropical Depression 12 is South of the Cape Verde Islands moving West at 15 mph, and intensifying, likely to become a hurricane by mid to late week. The mid Atlantic ridge is undergoing some changes but the net result is a WNW movement over the week as this storm will become Hurricane Katia by Wednesday or Thursday and Tropical Storm Katia by noon today. It will pass north of the Leeward Island this coming weekend. I will be watching it and looking at the long range outlook today more carefully. In a couple of weeks it might threaten the USA, and if so, probably the east coast or it might recurve in and head north before it gets close sometime next week.

I will be writing a blog on on STORM SURGE next weekend. It is not what most people think it is, so I will explain it there as it is too long to go into here.

NEXT FORECAST: Tomorrow, Tuesday. (we are in the height of Hurricane Season).

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Peter S. Ray

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