IRENE and more 8/29/2011 5:30am

Colleagues, IRENE, while not as bad as feared, still was responsible for for at least 19 deaths, at least 4 million people without electricity and coastal and inland flooding that has disrupted many lives, businesses and communities. We can be thankful it was not worse as we remember those whose lives have been significantly disrupted and those who lost as much as if it were a Cat 5. FORECAST: IRENE is now part of a extra tropical low that is rapidly moving increasingly eastward and will pass the southern tip of Greenland tomorrow night. Winds will remain at Tropical Storm Strength for some time and eventually cause some bad weather in Iceland by the end of the week.

DISCUSSION: There are 2 storms or potential storms in the Atlantic. Tropical Storm Jose is in the mid Atlantic North of Bermuda, headed NE and dying. No threat to anything.

Tropical Depression 12 is South of the Cape Verde Islands moving West at 15 mph, and intensifying, likely to become a hurricane by mid to late week. The mid Atlantic ridge is undergoing some changes but the net result is a WNW movement over the week as this storm will become Hurricane Katia by Wednesday or Thursday and Tropical Storm Katia by noon today. It will pass north of the Leeward Island this coming weekend. I will be watching it and looking at the long range outlook today more carefully. In a couple of weeks it might threaten the USA, and if so, probably the east coast or it might recurve in and head north before it gets close sometime next week.

I will be writing a blog on http://www.hurricanehunt.com on STORM SURGE next weekend. It is not what most people think it is, so I will explain it there as it is too long to go into here.

NEXT FORECAST: Tomorrow, Tuesday. (we are in the height of Hurricane Season).

DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states at no cost to those who receive it.

NEW BLOG AND DONATIONS:

I have set up a website and blog which may be reached at URL http://www.hurricanehunt.com In this website you can find the forecast, as well as a blog of expanded interests of mine dealing with weather and climate and hurricanes, and an opportunity for you to comment as well. There is also an opportunity for you to contribute to defraying the increasing costs of maintaining this service, if and only if you want to. This must always be a not for profit public service and free as long as I have anything to do with it. But I have had offers of help in the past and it is increasingly difficult for me to underwrite all the cost, even with the generous and gracious support form Hayes Computer Systems.

SUBSCRIPTIONS:

Please do NOT send subscription messages to hurricane-forecasts@lists.hcs.net.

To subscribe or unsubscribe to the hurricane forecast list send an email to hurricane-forecast-request@lists.hcs.net with "subscribe" or "unsubscribe" as the subject. You can manage your subscription at: http://lists.hcs.net/mailman/listinfo/hurricane-forecast_lists.hcs.net If someone wishes to contact me, they can send an email to hurricanehunter007@gmail.com.

Peter S. Ray

_______________________________________________ hurricane-forecast mailing list hurricane-forecast@lists.hcs.net http://lists.hcs.net/mailman/listinfo/hurricane-forecast_lists.hcs.net