Tropical Storm Katia 8/31/2001 4:30am

Colleagues, IRENE is now implicated in the deaths of some 40 people and 7 million who lost power and maybe 7 billion in damages (however that is counted). And the problems and heartache continue with the consequences of inland flooding still growing. Not always is the focus on wind alone appropriate. Realizing the maximum winds that define the category is only a swath maybe 20 miles wide or even less. And the effect of rain and Tropical Storm force winds which can gust up to hurricane strength can cove a swath 300 miles wide. But is it less dramatic a picture, so... FORECAST: Tropical storm Katia will be a hurricane later today, but presently with winds of 65 mph moving WNW at a healthy 20 mph. If it crosses 20 deg N before it gets to 60 W it will miss the United States. I am confident it will, but we will know this weekend and I think it will miss the USA all together as it passes by North Carolina the end of next week. Bermuda will get hurricane force winds or at least strong Tropical Storm force winds.

DISCUSSION: It is moving towards an upper level trough, that, although weak, I think will be enough. Also later next week another trough will be coming that I am watching which, if it can get there in time (timing is close), it is the back-up plan to help out if needed. The turn (recurvature) should be noticeable this weekend. All the islands (including the Bahamas) will be spared all but some rain showers. This does not include Bermuda.

I will be writing a blog on on STORM SURGE next weekend. It is not what most people think it is, so I will explain it there as it is too long to go into here.

NEXT FORECAST: Tomorrow, Thursday.

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Peter S. Ray

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