HURRICANE KATIA 9/1/2011 5:30am

Colleagues, HURRICANE KATIA will not hit Florida and will also miss the USA with its closest approach being North Carolina's Outer Banks mid week the week after next. as a hurricane, but at least 100 miles off shore. FORECAST: HURRICANE KATIA has winds of greater than 75 mph and is moving toward the WNW at 19 mph. HURRICANE KATIA is strengthening and by the beginning of the week will reach major hurricane status. By mid week next week HURRICANE KATIA will be north of Hispaniola and by the end of next week north of the Bahamas and turning NW and north of Florida by the end of the weekend after this this weekend. If you can follow all of that. Bottom line, Florida will NOT be affected, and I believe it will recurve between NC and Bermuda in about 8 or 9 days.

DISCUSSION: The reasoning remains the same and so far the data is supporting that evolution. It is moving towards an upper level trough, that, although weak, I think will be enough. Also later next week another trough will be coming that I am watching. If it can get there in time (timing is close), it is the back-up plan to help out if needed. The turn (recurvature) should be noticeable this weekend. All the islands (including the Bahamas) will be spared all but some rain showers. This does not include Bermuda. If a state is to be hit, Iook to NC first and SC second.

There is a Tropical Disturbance in the middle of the Gulf that will become a Tropical Storm over the weekend. But the steering is is very week and little clue where it is going beyond NW for the next few days. One model even has it coming to Tallahassee, but don't believe that one. Most likely Louisiana will get some of its weather including beneficial rain. Most of Texas would love to have it come and lessen what is a record breaking drought that they are experiencing.

I will be posting a blog on on STORM SURGE on Sunday. It is not what most people think it is, so I will explain it there.

NEXT FORECAST: Tomorrow, Friday.

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Peter S. Ray

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