Tropical Storm Katia 9/2/2001 5:00 am

On 9/1/2011 5:36 AM, Peter Ray wrote: Colleagues, Hurricane KATIA will not hit Florida but has decided to spend a day dipping back to Tropical Storm status.

The most immediate impact is a tropical depression 13 in the Gulf where the central Gulf states, in particular Louisiana, will get a lot of rain but not too much wind. If it get a little stronger it will be Tropical Storm Lee, and that could happen today. A lot of rain for Southern Louisiana and Alabama.

FORECAST: Tropical storm Katia has winds of 70 mph instead of 75 mph as she moves WNW at 14 mph, still 500 miles east of the Leeward Islands and roughly the Latitude of Puerto Rico. Katia will regain Hurricane status and continue to intensify over the weekend as it makes a basically WNW to NW track at 14 mph, gradually accelerating. No chance to hit Florida, even if the projected path edges westward daily because it lost some of its depth in it's temporary weakening. This will remove Bermuda from the threat of hurricane force winds.

Tropical depression 13 should become Tropical Storm Lee today or tomorrow. It is now about 200 miles South of coast of Central Louisiana, headed generally north with likely landfall Monday. But it is mainly a rainmaker to its NE. A LOT of rain now and for days across Louisiana and coastal Alabama with winds up to about 50 mph max. This system is very disorganized in the past and probably will continue that way. New Orleans should expect to continue to get a lot of rain over the weekend. Texas, wont get much rain, if any. Sorry.

DISCUSSION: The reasoning remains the same and so far the data is supporting that evolution. If a state is to be hit, Iook to NC first and SC second.

New Orleans is and will be continuing to get a lot of rain, weak winds. There will be some flooding, hopefully not too bad, and certainly not like on the east coast recently or Katrina. Just a little.

I will be posting a blog on http://www.hurricanehunt.com on STORM SURGE on Sunday. It is not what most people think it is, so I will explain it there.

The next blog will be on my trip to China, with pictures.

NEXT FORECAST: Tomorrow, Saturday

Peter Ray.

DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states at no cost to those who receive it.

NEW BLOG AND DONATIONS:

I have set up a website and blog which may be reached at URL http://www.hurricanehunt.com In this website you can find the forecast, as well as a blog of expanded interests of mine dealing with weather and climate and hurricanes, and an opportunity for you to comment as well. There is also an opportunity for you to contribute to defraying the increasing costs of maintaining this service, if and only if you want to. This must always be a not for profit public service and free as long as I have anything to do with it. But I have had offers of help in the past and it is increasingly difficult for me to underwrite all the cost, even with the generous and gracious support form Hayes Computer Systems.

SUBSCRIPTIONS:

Please do NOT send subscription messages to hurricane-forecasts@lists.hcs.net.

To subscribe or unsubscribe to the hurricane forecast list send an email to hurricane-forecast-request@lists.hcs.net with "subscribe" or "unsubscribe" as the subject. You can manage your subscription at: http://lists.hcs.net/mailman/listinfo/hurricane-forecast_lists.hcs.net If someone wishes to contact me, they can send an email to hurricanehunter007@gmail.com.

Peter S. Ray

DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states at no cost to those who receive it.

NEW BLOG AND DONATIONS:

I have set up a website and blog which may be reached at URL http://www.hurricanehunt.com In this website you can find the forecast, as well as a blog of expanded interests of mine dealing with weather and climate and hurricanes, and an opportunity for you to comment as well. There is also an opportunity for you to contribute to defraying the increasing costs of maintaining this service, if and only if you want to. This must always be a not for profit public service and free as long as I have anything to do with it. But I have had offers of help in the past and it is increasingly difficult for me to underwrite all the cost, even with the generous and gracious support form Hayes Computer Systems.

SUBSCRIPTIONS:

Please do NOT send subscription messages to hurricane-forecasts@lists.hcs.net.

To subscribe or unsubscribe to the hurricane forecast list send an email to hurricane-forecast-request@lists.hcs.net with "subscribe" or "unsubscribe" as the subject. You can manage your subscription at: http://lists.hcs.net/mailman/listinfo/hurricane-forecast_lists.hcs.net If someone wishes to contact me, they can send an email to hurricanehunter007@gmail.com.

Peter S. Ray

_______________________________________________ hurricane-forecast mailing list hurricane-forecast@lists.hcs.net http://lists.hcs.net/mailman/listinfo/hurricane-forecast_lists.hcs.net